After going through a couple of weeks of tough forecasting, with little agreement among the weather models, this forecast period is looking a little more stable with the two main weather models for our region in basic agreement.
We start off this forecast with a low over Manitoba that is quickly moving east. To the west, the upper ridge of high pressure over B.C., which brought record-breaking temperatures, is collapsing as it slides to the east. This upper ridge looks to bring very warm air into southern Alberta, Saskatchewan and possibly southwestern Manitoba. Right now, it looks like the warmest air will remain south of the Trans-Canada Highway, with areas around the border possibly pushing into the upper 30s to maybe even 40 C.
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Along the northern edge of the ridge, a thermal low will develop and track to the northeast to be over central Manitoba by Friday or Saturday. Don’t expect much in the way of precipitation from this low but it looks like it will trigger some showers, thundershowers and possibly thunderstorms to the north of this system. Over the weekend high pressure will settle in across the Prairies, bringing with it sunny to partly cloudy skies with seasonable mid- to late summer temperatures.
We could see some unsettled weather late in this forecast period as the weather models show energy from the possible tropical disturbance in the Pacific moving northward, but that is a long way off. Watch for updates; this is an interesting pattern, should it develop.
Alberta
The upper ridge will bring warm temperatures to southern regions on Wednesday, with very hot conditions on Thursday. As the thermal low develops late on Thursday, north-central and western regions have the chance to see some heavy showers and thunderstorms develop by Friday, with particular emphases over western regions. I think the weather models are overdoing it, but the potential is there on Friday.
High pressure will begin to build in on Saturday, which will help to clear these regions. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies from Saturday to Monday and temperatures a little on the cool side, with highs only around the 20 C mark and overnight lows falling into the single digits. Unsettled weather from the remains of a tropical disturbance may move in by Tuesday or Wednesday but confidence in this is very low at this time.
Saskatchewan
The B.C. upper ridge will be collapsing to the south as it drifts eastward. This ridge will bring sunny skies and warm temperatures to southern regions on Thursday and Friday. Just how far north the hot weather will extend is a little uncertain, but for the most part it should be confined to areas south of Regina. Expect daytime highs to range from the low 30s over central regions to upper 30s in the extreme south. Overnight lows would drop only into the upper teens over southern regions and mid-teens further north. More northern regions will be cooler, with highs in the low to mid-20s. There may be the odd shower or thundershower on Friday or Saturday over northern regions as the thermal low tracks by.
Things will begin to cool down Saturday as the high over Alberta pushes to the east. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies with daytime highs in the low 20s and overnight lows around 10 C. Attention then turns to the possible tropical moisture moving in by Tuesday (Aug. 22). Lots of uncertainty with this system, so confidence is low. Will update as the picture becomes clearer.
Manitoba
This forecast period starts off with an area of low pressure sliding off to the east. As forecasted, the precipitation from this low is mostly confined to central regions. By Thursday the low will be well off to the east and this region will begin to feel the effect of the collapsing upper ridge. Thursday and Friday will see mostly sunny skies with temperatures over southern regions in the upper 20s on Thursday with some low 30s to possibly mid-30s in the far south on Friday. Central regions will be cooler with highs only in the mid-20s.
As the thermal low tracks through the province on Saturday the weather models are keeping any precipitation from this low well into northern regions. High pressure will then build in over the weekend and into the early part of next week. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the low to mid-20s with overnight lows in the low teens. There could be some scattered thundershowers on Sunday over southern regions as a disturbance tracks by to the south.
Eyes then turn to the possibility of tropical moisture pushing in late in this forecast period, but confidence is low so watch for the update.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
