U.S. grains: Soybeans run up to three-week high on hot, dry weather

Wheat eases on Ukrainian export efforts

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Published: August 21, 2023

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CBOT November 2023 soybeans with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)

Chicago | Reuters — Chicago soybeans rose for a fourth straight session on Monday, reaching a three-week high as hot, dry U.S. conditions fueled concerns over crop stress.

Wheat fell as Ukraine sought new Black Sea avenues for export, adding pressure to corn futures. Markets were awaiting results from the annual Pro Farmer crop tour, which will examine corn and soybean fields across the Midwest this week.

The most active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ended 8-1/2 cents higher at $13.61-3/4 a bushel, having earlier touched its highest price since July 28 (all figures US$).

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Chicago Board of Trade corn futures set contract lows and soybean futures sagged on Friday on expectations that beneficial weather for U.S. crops will lead to bumper harvests, analysts said.

CBOT corn lost 10-1/2 cents to $4.82-1/2 a bushel, while CBOT wheat fell 13-1/2 cents to $6.25-1/2 a bushel.

Extreme heat is expected across large swathes of the U.S. Midwest this week, with temperatures above 100 F (37.8 C) across the U.S. Plains.

Sweltering temperatures, combined with a lack of rain, could damage soybean crops during a crucial development window.

“People are saying the rain we had in the first week of August made the crop,” said Mark Gold, managing partner at Top Third Ag Marketing. “I think this heat will do an awful lot of damage.”

Weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture crop ratings, published after the market close rated the U.S. soybean crop 59 per cent good-to-excellent as of Aug. 20, unchanged from the week prior and one percentage point below analyst estimates.

Corn conditions fell by one percentage point to 58 per cent good-to-excellent.

“It’s not wanting to rain for maybe three weeks. If that forecast holds, you’re going to back this bean crop off,” said John Zanker, market analyst at Risk Management Commodities.

Soybeans also found support after exporters sold 159,350 metric tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations earlier on Monday, according to USDA.

Exporters also sold 111,770 metric tonnes of corn to Mexico, USDA said.

The latest military incidents in the Russia-Ukraine war sparked short-covering on Friday as the threat of further disruption to Black Sea grain trade hung over the market, though a new plan to insure Ukrainian export vessels travelling through a newly-tested Black Sea export corridor added pressure.

“Just because they get insurance doesn’t mean Russia won’t shoot at them. We’ll have to see how that pans out,” Gold said.

— Reporting for Reuters by Christopher Walljasper; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

About the author

Christopher Walljasper

Christopher Walljasper

Chicago-based Thomson Reuters' reporter covering U.S. food production, supply chain, U.S. hunger and farm labor. Born in a farming community in Southeast Iowa, he graduated from Monmouth College in Illinois and received his master’s degree from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University.

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