Glacier FarmMedia – Canadian canola exports in both 2023/24 and the upcoming new crop year are unlikely to live up to earlier expectations, causing ending stocks of the oilseed to rise, according to updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), released May 21.
The government agency cut its call for 2023/24 Canadian canola exports by a million tonnes from an earlier estimate to 6.000 million tonnes. Meanwhile, new crop exports were forecast at 6.900 million tonnes, which compares with the April projection of 7.700 million tonnes.
Domestic usage for canola was raised by about 500,000 tonnes for both marketing years, at 11.534 million tonnes for 2023/24 and 11.350 million tonnes for 2024/25. However, the increased domestic demand was not enough to counter the lower export projections and canola ending stocks for 2023/24 were raised to 2.550 million tonnes, from 2.000 million in April. The new crop canola carryout was pegged at 2.500 million tonnes, which compares with the previous estimate of 1.650 million tonnes.
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The wheat carryout was revised lower for both marketing years, due primarily to an increase in anticipated 2023/24 feed usage. Wheat ending stocks were pegged at 2.950 million tonnes for the current marketing year and at 3.750 million tonnes for 2024/25. That compares with the April estimates of 3.440 million tonnes and 4.400 million tonnes respectively.
