Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Prices for the soy complex, and corn pushed lower for the most part during the week ended Aug. 27. Terry Reilly, senior agricultural specialist for Marex, said there were a few factors behind the declines, which he expects the losses to continue.
“For the soybeans there was a lot of short covering until (Aug. 19),” Reilly said, noting traders were taking profits were led to declines in the futures on the Chicago Board of Trade.
“For corn, the crop is pretty much at the finish line, we shouldn’t have any problems,” he added about the lead up to harvest and pointed to exports as another issue.
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U.S. Exports
While 2024/25 export sales of United States soybeans and corn remained well ahead of those the year before, Reilly believes that 2025/26 soybeans and corn exports will drop.
“Exports remain fairly solid but over the long term, we’re going to be competing against Brazil,” Reilly continued. “The export window for beans is starting to tighten up here. Without a deal with China we see the crop year sales to be fairly low relative to other years.”
One bright spot
One bright spot at CBOT had been soyoil, which climbed higher based on small oil refinery exemptions from renewable fuel requirements proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In the aftermath of the EPA’s announcement, soyoil started to pull back.
“There are many pieces to the puzzle with the biofuel picture and a lot of those pieces are missing,” Reilly said.
In particular, he said the EPA has yet to provide its outlook on imported feedstocks. He noted that if those come in at 50 per cent, that would be bullish for soyoil futures.
Canadian crops
Reilly offered a quick look at the forthcoming crop production report from Statistics Canada on Aug. 28. He estimated total wheat production to be down 1.5 per cent from the 34.96 million tonnes harvested in 2024/25 and he expects production for all other crops to be relatively steady compared to last year.
