Glacier FarmMedia — The monsoon rains necessary for pulse crops in India are forecast to be below normal in 2026, creating early uncertainty over upcoming production prospects.
The India Meteorological Department released its first forecast for the 2026 monsoon season on April 13, predicting rainfall will reach 92 per cent of the long-term average. That marked the lowest early forecast of the past three decades.
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WHY IT MATTERS: Indian demand for Canadian pulses varies from year-to-year depending on their own production and trade policies.
The southwest monsoon typically runs from June through September as it advances northward and accounts for about 70 per cent of India’s seasonal rainfall. The India Meteorological Department defines normal rainfall as between 96 and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 centimetres for the four-month season.
India’s rabi season crops, which include lentils and chickpeas, are typically seeded in November and December. They rely on the moisture reserves from the monsoon rains for germination and growth.
Indian forecasters predict El Niño conditions to develop during the hurricane season, which has led to below average monsoon rains and drought for the country in past El Nino years.
While below-normal seasonal rainfall is expected for most of the country, some localized areas may still see normal to above-normal precipitation, the India Meteorological Department said.
The department will release its next forecast at the end of May, with several factors that may alter the monsoon outlook. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean, with positive conditions likely to develop towards the end of the monsoon season — which is favourable for rainfall.
Northern Hemisphere and Eurasian snow cover during January to March 2026 were slightly below normal, which was also said to be favourable for southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall 2026.
