Tight stocks and limits on other countries’ wheat exports spurred
healthy hikes in the Canadian Wheat Board’s 2007-08 pool return
outlooks (PROs) for Prairie wheat and durum, released Thursday.
Increases in the PROs for wheat
ranged from $16 to $33 per tonne. No. 1 Canada Western Red Winter
(CWRW) Select 11.5 and No. 1 CWRW both rose $16 per tonne to $338 and
$325 respectively, compared to their December PROs. The January PRO
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up $33.
Strong exports from the U.S. and continuing restrictions on
wheat exports from both Russia and Argentina helped improve the wheat
price outlook, as did a Jan. 11 U.S. Department of Agriculture report
that acres seeded to hard red winter wheat have declined from the
previous year, the CWB said in its release.
Nearby Minneapolis wheat futures have risen by $1.34 per
bushel since the December PRO, the CWB noted, based on an “extremely
tight” spring wheat situation and market expectations of lower seeded
wheat acreage in North America.
The CWB’s durum PROs for January rose $20 to $25 per tonne
over December levels, with No. 5 Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD) up
$491 and $488 per tonne, respectively.
After a holiday “lull,” world durum markets moved higher and
are expected to remain high until new-crop durum is ready in the
Mediterranean basin. Crop conditions in Europe and North Africa have
been “mostly good” since seeding started in November, but North
America’s durum-growing regions still see some dry areas.
“Any weather problems in the major durum growing areas of the
world during the growing season will quickly push prices upward,” the
CWB said.
Barley
The CWB’s Pool A for feed barley closes Jan. 31, leading to
limited delivery opportunities and an increase of just $5 per tonne
In Pool B, No. 1 CW rose $4 per tonne to $259, on demand from the
Middle East and limits on exports out of Russia and Ukraine. Price
pressure is expected in August when new-crop barley is ready from the
Black Sea region and European Union.
Malting barley was up $3 per tonne in the January PRO, with
Special Select CW two-row reaching $290 per tonne and Standard Select
six-row at $259. Concerns over quality in Canada, Australia and
Argentina are supporting prices and a tight market will continue to
support them until European new-crop supplies are available, the CWB
said.
