MarketsFarm — Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada published its August outlook for principal field crops on Friday, with some notable changes. Production for several cereal, oilseed and pulse crop were reduced, leading to revisions in exports, domestic usage and ending stocks. The report pointed to drought in southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan for the downward move.
While AAFC’s call on 2023-24 canola production was held at 18.8 million tonnes, the department noted an error.
“The imbalance between canola supplies and disappearance is reflected in the negative feed, waste and dockage (FWD) and error estimate of 663,000 tonnes. The negative FWD reflects an underestimation of the carry-in and/or production for the crop year, these estimates are expected to be revised in an upcoming release of Statistics Canada’s supply and disposition report,” the report said.
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MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville further explained the error.
“The negative FWD number obviously cannot stand, but it’s very likely an acknowledgement from the government that their 2022 canola production estimate of 18.1 (million metric tonnes) is not right, understated by at minimum of 500,000 to more likely around 700,000 tonnes,” he said. “Now it is up to StatCan to make the correction, maybe in their September grain stocks report or maybe they delay it until their December production report.”
With StatCan scheduled to issue its model-based production estimates on Aug. 29, followed by its stocks report on Sept. 8, the September report from AAFC will more accurately reflect crop output for 2023-24.
Jubinville commented that AAFC was wrong in its estimation of 18.8 million tonnes of canola, but the department has to wait for that Aug. 29 report before changing its call.
All wheat saw its 2023-24 production reduced from 35.33 million tonnes in July to now 33.21 million, and durum was cut from 5.7 million tonnes to 4.91 million.
“Drought conditions for the southern half of Alberta and southwest and west-central Saskatchewan lower the durum and the spring (wheat). They are still too high but working in the direction of lower in future reports, I suspect,” Jubinville said.
Oats were trimmed from 2.82 million tonnes to 2.71 million. Meanwhile the department’s flax estimate was held at 325,000 tonnes along with soybeans staying at 6.85 million. Corn saw an increase from 14.53 million tonnes in July to 15.30 million, based on good growing conditions in Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba, according to AAFC.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg; includes files from Phil Franz-Warkentin of MarketsFarm.
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