GlacierFarmMedia | MarketsFarm – With rain forecast for most of the United States Corn Belt, the prospects for larger than expected soybean and corn crops is pretty much certain, according to broker Scott Capinegro of AgMarket Inc. in Chicago.
He noted the Corn Belt didn’t quite get the heat in July and so far in August that had been forecast and with rain to come he said, “everything is just ideal.”
“Anyone catching some rain from this point on to the end of the month, that’s going to be beneficial to corn and soybeans,” Capinegro added.
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In turn, that played into the recent downward trend for soybeans and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade. The broker said the increases both commodities had on Aug. 14 were most likely a ‘dead cat bounce’ and the declines would soon resume.
Capinegro said the August supply and demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged soybean ending stocks for 2024/25 at 560 million bushels, up from July’s estimate of 435 million.
“We’re in the camp that’s going to go to 600 million just because they’re overstating exports,” he stated, which would be well above the 2023/24 carryover of 345 million bushels.
However, Capinegro theorized the USDA could be factoring in an assumption that soybean prices are going to fall further and in turn that would generate greater exports.
He also suggested that soybean futures could feel more pressure should Brazil’s next crop get off to a good start. He said it’s likely there will be more soybean acres planted in Brazil for 2024/25, but not to any great extent.
The broker noted the Pro Farmer crop tour is set to begin Aug. 19, with the trade keeping an eye on the results.
