Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Strong export sales, a rapid harvest pace and the United States presidential election were major factors affecting prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) during the week ended Oct. 23.
The December corn contract moved up 14.25 U.S. cents per bushel at US$4.1900, while the November soybean contract gained 17.5 cents/bu. at US$9.9750.
Jack Scoville of the Price Futures Group in Chicago said there was strong demand for both corn and soybeans during the week. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported sales of 1.382 million tonnes of corn to Mexico, South Korea and unknown destinations since Oct. 17. As for U.S. soybeans, 1.061 million tonnes were sold for export to China and unknown destinations.
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“(Those sales) have really helped out,” Scoville said. “Corn and soybean sales continue at a slower pace, but (on Oct. 23), we had one corn sale and two soybean sales, which are positives.”
The recent influx of sales is stemming from anxieties over the result of the U.S. presidential election. The trade believes a second term for Donald Trump could mean new tariffs on U.S. exports. Buyers overseas are seeking more product before, or if these changes come into effect.
“There’s a lot of buying going on upfront to make sure it’s done before Trump has a chance to win and any chance of tariffs being imposed,” Scoville said.
As of Oct. 20, the U.S. corn harvest was 65 per cent complete, 13 points ahead of the five-year average, according to the USDA. The soybean crop was 82 per cent complete, 15 points ahead of the five-year average. Scoville added that ongoing dryness in growing areas are allowing harvests to progress unabated.
“Because of (dryness), the harvest pace is running much ahead of normal. The soybeans are coming off very, very dry and that could be costing them bushels in yields,” he said. “Corn should be coming off dry, as well and that could cost them bushels down the road.”
Meanwhile, wheat prices showed declines as the December Chicago contract dipped 6.5 U.S. cents/bu. at $5.7850. The December Kansas City contract was down 3.25 U.S. cents/bu. at $5.8850 and the December Minneapolis contract lost 5.25 U.S. cents/bu. at $6.1550.
However, Scoville said wheat prices were “firming up” as of late.
“I think what’s going on with wheat is there are a lot of expectations with smaller Russian crops and there are all sorts of problems in Ukraine getting exports out. Then, there are weather issues in Europe, as well.”
He also predicted November soybeans to move up to US$10.25/bu. in a matter of days, while December corn would rise to US$4.28.
“Chicago (wheat) could make a push to US$5.95 or US$6/bu. Kansas City could be in the US$6.10 to US$6.20/bu. area and Minneapolis could move up to US$6.40/bu.,” Scoville said.
