Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade trended lower in the last days of April, with little bullish news for either commodity as attention turns to the new crop and relatively favourable planting condition across the United States.
The old crop July soybean contract was facing stiff chart resistance at US$10.60 to US$10.70 per bushel.
“There just hasn’t been a reason to significantly push it above that level, because there’s just not much demand for old crop,” said Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading in Chicago. He said offers from Brazil and Argentina to China were significantly lower than soybeans from the United States.
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While the ongoing trade war contributed to that softness in soybeans, Lusk said Brazil was already taking market share away from the U.S. before tariffs were introduced.
“Every day’s a soap opera,” said Lusk on the continued drama over U.S. trade policies and potential deals, “but at the end of the day, people still have to eat.”
He expected trade deals would eventually be reached and direction on U.S. biofuel policy would become clearer, but the timing was uncertain and the traditional fundamentals — such as the weather through the growing season — will remain a larger influence in the long term.
Lusk said a hot summer would be supportive for soybean and corn prices and expected there could be room to the upside in the new crop futures for soybeans and corn.
“If you want to be bullish, the uncertainty is the new crop,” said Lusk.
