EU wheat rises ahead of U.S. elections, USDA report

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Published: November 8, 2016

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Paris/Reuters – European wheat prices rose in the wake of Chicago on Tuesday in a broader rise across international markets which increasingly anticipated the victory of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the U.S. Presidential elections.

Traders also pointed to short covering and technical buying ahead of the election results and the release a much awaited U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) supply and demand report on Wednesday.

December milling wheat on Paris-based Euronext, unofficially closed 1.1 per cent higher at 162.00 euros per tonne after touching support at 160.25 euros in a slightly higher volume than the previous days.

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Ukraine’s 2025 wheat harvest is forecast at a maximum of 21.8 million metric tons, down from 22.7 million tons in 2024, the UAC farmers’ union said on Wednesday, slightly raising its outlook for this year’s corn crop.

CME Group’s December EU wheat contract was just 0.1 per cent higher at 172.75 euros a tonne, thereby reducing the contract’s spread with Euronext. “This rebound in activity was not necessarily planned but the answer will only come tomorrow, notably with the election results that can generate a lot of volatility,” a trader said.

Clinton, favoured by investors as they see her lending greater clarity and stability to the markets, has a 90 per cent chance of defeating Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation poll released on Monday.

Logistical problems in Ukraine, one of the world’s largest wheat exporters and a major competitor of EU wheat, were also supportive.

Ukrainian 2016-17 grain exports could be seven million tonnes lower than originally expected due to logistical difficulties and some companies have already redirected shipments from Ukraine to other countries, traders said.

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