More stable weather due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are likely in the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2025, with a 56 per cent chance in August-October, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said.
“The ENSO neutral conditions should enhance planting and yield expectations for corn/soybeans in the U.S. as well as South America, but lower yield expectations a bit for wheat in Australia,” said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist, at Vaisala Weather.
“The chances of transition to El Niño or La Niña are rather low, although the odds of La Niña are slightly higher than the odds of El Niño, as we should be in a negative neutral category as we get closer to the fall and winter,”
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Chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, but remain comparable to ENSO-neutral, the CPC said on Thursday.
Why it’s important
The El Niño phenomenon is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, which can lead to crop damage, flash floods or fires.
La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.
Japan’s weather bureau said that normal weather patterns are continuing and that there was a 40 per cent chance of the La Niña phenomenon emerging in the Northern Hemisphere autumn.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service has predicted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin for the 2025 season.
— Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru
