Glacier FarmMedia – The ICE Futures canola market may finally be showing signs of stabilizing after its long downtrend, although the upside could be limited for the time being.
“The general trend is still pointing downward, but we’ve been hovering around this C$600 level for a month now,” said commodities investment advisor David Derwin of PI Financial in Winnipeg.
“It’s getting closer, but perhaps not quite yet,” said Derwin on whether the lows were in yet, adding that if values managed to stabilize around the C$600 per tonne level for another month he would be more confident that the downtrend was broken.
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The May contract traded just above the C$600 per tonne mark on March 6, but settled slightly below that level at C$598.90 per tonne.
While increased farmer selling on any moves higher would keep a lid on the upside, Derwin noted that many producers were already well sold on their canola. Supportive seasonal price trends, such as weather news during the spring planting season, also often underpin values at this time of year.
Statistics Canada releases its first planting expectations for the upcoming growing season on March 11, with average pre-report expectations calling for a slight decline in seeded canola area from the 22.1 million acres planted in 2023. However, opinions are divided, and some analysts expect canola area could still be up on the year.
