Glacier FarmMedia – Ahead of the July supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture, its attaché in Brasilia projected larger soybean production in 2024/25. However, the attaché pegged their soybean estimates below the USDA’s official numbers.
Meanwhile, the Brasilia desk reduced their call on the 2023/24 soybean harvest, having placed it at 150.0 million tonnes versus the USDA projection of 153 million. The reason being the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul and yields in a number of states coming in below expectations.
The attaché raised the Brazil soybean crush for 2023/24 to 55.1 million tonnes versus the USDA’s 54.0 million, due to greater production of biofuels. That also saw total domestic use raised a little at 58.75 million tonnes compared to the official call of 57.75 million, but exports were cut to 94.0 million tonnes as opposed to the USDA’s estimate of 97.0 million. In the end, there’s a wide disparity in the carryover, with the attaché a pinch below 3.60 million tonnes and the USDA at 6.82 million.
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The attaché and the department forecast a larger soybean crop in 2024/25, but the former placed their number at 160.0 million tonnes compared to the USDA’s more optimistic figure of 169.0 million.
There’s also a difference in Brazil’s soybean crush with the attaché at 55.30 million tonnes versus the USDA at 54.50 million. However, they are quite close when it comes to domestic use with the Brasilia desk at 59.0 million tonnes and the department at 58.50 million. As for exports, there’s a large difference, as the attaché projected 99.0 million tonnes versus the USDA’s 109.0 million. As for the ending stocks, the attaché came to 5.85 million tonnes while the USDA stood at 8.47 million.
