Less wheat expected in Kazakhstan in 2023-24, despite same acres

Soil moisture loss expected in wheat-growing regions

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Published: April 19, 2023

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File photo of a wheat harvest in Kazakhstan. (Yerbolat Shadrakhov/iStock/Getty Images)

MarketsFarm — As the 2022-23 crop year in Kazakhstan begins to wind down, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) attaché in the country’s capital of Astana estimated its wheat production at 16.4 million tonnes. Should that forecast hold, the attaché’s report noted it would be the largest wheat harvest since 2017-18.

However, going into the 2023-24 crop year, the attaché projected the wheat harvest to slip to 13 million tonnes, although they believe the same amount of hectares will be combined at 12.89 million. Yield projections are expected to pull back from 1.27 tonnes per hectare in 2022-23 to 1.01 this coming year.

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Photo: Vencavolrab/iStock/Getty Images

USDA adjusts supply/demand estimates

Corn and soybean yields in the United States were left unchanged in the latest supply/demand estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, released July 11, although a reduction in harvested area led to small downward revisions to production for the crops.

The attaché explained that while the top wheat-growing regions of Kazakhstan had improved soil moisture levels this April compared to a year ago, there’s been rapid evaporation. As well, the country’s weather outlook from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) calls for higher than normal temperatures, which would then lead to additional moisture loss.

The Astana desk pegged Kazakhstan’s wheat imports for 2023-24 at two million tonnes, the same as the year before. That would bring the country’s total supply to 17.39 million tonnes, down 2.5 million from 2022-23.

Wheat exports were projected to slip back from 10.5 million tonnes in 2022-23 down to nine million in 2023-24, despite China now allowing Kazakhstan to ship its wheat more easily by hopper cars instead being containerized.

Total wheat consumption in 2023-24 was estimated to hold at seven million tonnes, but ending stocks are to drop by one million tonnes at 1.39 million.

The attaché also forecast Kazakhstan barley production to remain largely the same going into 2023-24, at 3.2 million tonnes. Yields are expected to slip from 1.5 tonnes per hectare in 2022-23 to 1.46 in 2023-24.

With a small decline in imports, the country’s total supply is to dip from 3.79 million tonnes in 2022-23 to 3.62 million in 2023-24. Meanwhile exports are to hold at one million tonnes and total consumption is to decrease by 147,000 tonnes at 2.3 million. In the end, the carryover was projected to hold at 324,000 tonnes from year to year.

USDA will not release any official numbers for the 2023-24 crop year until its next round of supply and demand estimates (WASDE) on May 12.

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