Glacier FarmMedia -– Yields for United States soybeans, corn and wheat were projected to increase in 2024/25, according to the Department of Agriculture at its 100th annual Outlook Forum on Feb. 15. Also, the USDA said there’s to be more soybean acres but less for corn and wheat for the coming crop year.
“Yields are the big driver of this whole thing,” stated MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett.
The initial projections from the USDA were based on economic models, past data, weather patterns, and essentially the department’s best estimate. The USDA is scheduled to issue its farmer survey-based projections for 2024/25 at the end of March.
Read Also
U.S. grains: Wheat futures rise on supply snags in top-exporter Russia
U.S. wheat futures closed higher on Thursday on concerns over the limited availability of supplies for export in Russia, analysts said.
For soybeans, the USDA forecast the national yield to reach 52 bushels per acre in 2024/25, up from the current year’s 50.6. Planted acres were set to rise to 87.5 million compared to 83.6 million in 2023/24, with harvested acres rising to 86.6 million from 82.4 million. That would boost production to 4.505 billion bushels from 4.165 billion.
Total domestic use for U.S. soybeans was projected to bump up to 2.525 billion bushels in 2024/25 from this year’s 2.424 billion. Exports as well are to improve to 1.875 billion bushels from 1.720 billion. That’s to see ending stocks jump to 435 million bushels from 315 million in 2023/24.
As for U.S. corn, the USDA forecast yields to rise to 181 bu./ac. in 2024/25 from 177.3. Planted acres were dropped to 91.0 million from this year’s 94.6 million. Harvest acres fell to 83.1 million from 86.5 million. With that reduced area, production was forecast to slip to 15.040 billion bushels from 2023/24’s 15.342 billion.
At 12.555 billion bushels, total domestic use was nudged up from this year’s 12.455 billion. Exports were little changed with 2.150 billion bushels in 2024/25 from 2.100 billion. This is projected to push up ending stocks to 2.532 billion bushels from 2.172 billion.
U.S. wheat was set to see reduced planted acres in 2024/25 at 47.0 million versus 49.6 million. However, harvested acres are expected to increase to 38.4 million from 37.3 million. Yields were set at 49.5 bu./ac. compared to this year’s 48.6.
There’s to be a slight decrease in wheat’s total domestic use at 1.134 million bushels, from the 1.144 billion in 2023/24. Exports for the coming year were pegged at 775 million bushels versus 725 million. The carryout is to grow to 769 million bushels from 658 million.
“That’s pretty big yields in terms of corn and beans,” commented Burnett, noting the overall effect of the Outlook Forum’s report was bearish.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
