Chicago | Reuters – U.S. wheat futures fell about 1.5 per cent on Wednesday as worries about global export demand and a year-on-year rise in U.S. inventories overshadowed support from a shrinking Russian wheat crop, analysts said.
Corn futures firmed while soybeans declined after the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply/demand reports offered few market-moving surprises.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July wheat WN24 settled down 9-1/2 cents at $6.17 per bushel but stayed above a five-week low set on Tuesday at $6.05-1/2.
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U.S. wheat futures closed higher on Thursday on concerns over the limited availability of supplies for export in Russia, analysts said.
CBOT July corn CN24 rose 4-3/4 cents to end at $4.54-1/4 a bushel while July soybeans SN24 finished down 3/4 cent at $11.77-1/4 a bushel. Trade in soybeans was choppy, with the July contract SN24 turning higher at times.
Wheat futures pared losses after the USDA cut its forecast of Russia’s 2024-25 wheat harvest to 83 million metric tons, a three-year low, down from 88 million tons last month. The USDA projected exports from Russia, the world’s top supplier, at 48 million tons, down from its May forecast of 52 million tons.
However, the USDA raised its estimate of the U.S. 2024/25 wheat crop to 1.875 billion bushels, a five-year high, from its May forecast of 1.858 billion. The government also raised its forecast of the amount of global wheat left at the end of the 2023/24 marketing year to 259.56 million metric tons, topping a range of trade expectations.
“We lowered the Russian crop, but the problem is, the carry-in on the world wheat numbers was increased. The bottom line is, the wheat market needs demand, or (futures) are going to continue to grind lower,” said Tom Fritz, a partner with EFG Group in Chicago.
Corn futures ended modestly higher, with firm domestic cash markets supporting the nearby July CN24 contract. Farmers have been reluctant to sell stored corn at current prices, a factor that has supported Midwest cash basis bids.
But relatively strong U.S. crop ratings for both corn and soybeans hung over the market, capping rallies.
“The world is coming to the realization that we have plenty of corn and soybeans, as long as we have a good North American crop. And right now, that crop is off to a very good start,” said Jake Hanley, managing director at Teucrium Trading.
– Additional reporting by P.J. Huffstutter, Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.
