Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Ukrainian grain exports are expected to be down in the 2024/25 marketing year due to smaller crops, tighter carryout stocks and the ongoing challenges of shipping through the Black Sea, according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service in Kyiv.
Total Ukrainian corn exports in 2024/25 are now forecast to be down by 38 per cent from the previous year, at 17.8 million tonnes. The USDA attaché estimated 2024/25 wheat exports at 15.2 million tonnes, which would be down by 18 per cent. Barley exports are forecast to be down by 19 per cent at 2.0 million tonnes.
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The USDA attaché in Ukraine pegged corn production at 23.3 million tonnes, which was down by 25 per cent from the bumper crop grown in 2023/24. Barley production was down by five per cent on the year at 5.5 million tonnes, while wheat held steady at 22.3 million tonnes.
Ukraine’s ability to independently operate ports in the Odesa region through 2023/24 under the Ukrainian Grain Corridor saw total grain exports increase by 10 per cent compared to the previous year, according to the USDA’s Kyiv office. However, those increased exports have led to a draw down in stocks — reducing the supplies available for export. Total ending stocks for all grains at the close of the 2023/24 marketing year were estimated at only 1.2 million tonnes, down by 82 per cent from the 6.6 million-tonne carryout in 2022/23.
Recent missile strikes on port facilities in the Odesa region were also cited by the USDA as a limiting factor on exports.
