Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – At 35.67 million tonnes of all wheat in 2025/26, the United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Ottawa came in 1.12 million tonnes more than the preliminary estimate from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
The USDA published the Global Agricultural Information Network report on May 1, with most of the numbers from its Ottawa desk higher than AAFC’s early projections. The only exception was the area harvested for 2025/26, with the attaché at 10.91 million hectares, 100,000 less than the estimate Statistics Canada provided to AAFC earlier this spring. The attaché and AAFC came in higher than the 10.65 million hectares combined in 2024/25.
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Difference in yield projections
The attaché forecast Canada’s wheat yield to be 3.27 tonnes per hectare, based on improved soil conditions in the country. Meanwhile, AAFC projected 3.16 t/ha. which brought its production number to 34.49 million tonnes. The Canadian agency placed the 2024/25 wheat harvest at 34.96 million tonnes.
For total supply, the attaché placed it at 40.84 million tonnes while AAFC called for it to be 38.91 million.
Gap between exports
Canada’s wheat exports also saw a gap, with the Ottawa desk estimating 26.50 million tonnes, one million more than AAFC. The attaché said exports are to be higher because of greater output in 2025/26. Total consumption has the attaché at 9.66 million tonnes compared to 8.86 million from AAFC.
That’s to bring ending stocks to 4.68 million tonnes, according to the attaché while AAFC said it’s to be 4.55 million. Both are above the 4.33 million tonnes AAFC estimated for 2024/25.
In calculating its numbers, the Ottawa desk included the import tariffs the U.S. and Canada have placed on each other. Also, the attaché accounted for the higher exchange rate between the two currencies.
