MarketsFarm — Strong El Niño conditions that have developed in the Pacific Ocean would typically lead to a milder winter across Canada — but other factors this year could challenge that outlook, according to the winter forecast from The Weather Network, released Wednesday.
The winter forecast features a mild start to the season, with a delay in the arrival of consistent cold weather for most of the country. However, the forecast adds that January and February could bring a dramatic pattern change.
“The current El Niño event and ocean water temperatures across the Pacific Ocean are giving us a pattern that is unlike anything that we have ever seen before,” said Chris Scott, chief meteorologist at The Weather Network.
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“Therefore, we believe that the upcoming season will deliver some curveballs that will set this winter apart from typical El Niño winters. While mild temperatures should continue to dominate across Western Canada, it appears to be a different story for the eastern half of Canada where winter is expected to make more than just a token appearance.”
El Niño is associated with warmer-than-normal ocean water temperatures in the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean to the west of South America. This has an impact on the global jet stream pattern.
Alberta
A relatively mild winter is expected across Alberta, including Edmonton and Calgary, with above-normal temperatures and below-normal snow totals, according to The Weather Network. There will still be periods of high-impact winter weather, but mild Pacific air is expected to be more prevalent than arctic air.
During mid- to late winter, a cold pattern is forecast to develop well to the east of Alberta. If the focus of the cold weather shifts further west than currently expected, then Alberta could end up seeing a more active pattern (potentially more snow) and periods of more significant cold weather.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
A milder than normal winter is also expected across the region, especially across western Saskatchewan, as Pacific air will spread into the region from the west. However, there will still be periods of severe cold, especially during January and February across eastern parts of the region, including Winnipeg. However, frigid conditions are not expected to be as persistent as they are during a typical winter.
Below-normal snowfall is expected across western Saskatchewan, but eastern parts of the province and Manitoba are expected to see near-normal snow totals.
Ontario
A mild start to winter is expected in Ontario, with less snow than normal during the weeks leading up to the holidays, especially in southern parts of the province including London, Hamilton, Toronto and Ottawa.
While a strong El Niño would typically result in a milder pattern in the province for most of January, The Weather Network expects a colder scenario is more likely this year. When the colder weather arrives, the Great Lakes will be wide open, so the traditional snowbelt areas should eventually see an abundance of lake-effect snow.
The primary storm track for the season is expected to be well south of the border but close enough to bring near-normal snow totals to the southernmost parts of Ontario. However, a slight shift north or south would have a major impact on the final totals.
