ICE Canada Morning Comment: Lack of support pulls canola lower

Production expected to be higher than previously estimated

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Published: December 1, 2023

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Dec. 1 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures continued to fall back Friday morning, due to losses in comparable oils as the front contracts slipped below the C$700 per tonne psychological level.

The Chicago soy complex was lower, however soyoil was close to unchanged. European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were also to the downside. Global crude oil prices were relatively steady, providing little direction to vegetable oils.

In light of some sharp criticism from within the trade, Statistics Canada stated its model-based and survey-based production reports are accurate. However, some analysts and traders commented they have little to no confidence in those StatCan reports.

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The federal agency is set to release its production report on Monday. Despite that consternation in the trade, the average guess placed canola output at 18.3 million tonnes compared to StatCan’s September estimate of 17.4 million.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported producer deliveries of canola during Week 17 of the 2023/24 crop year were 381,200 tonnes and higher than the previous week. Exports dropped to 87,000 tonnes and domestic usage eased back to 202,900 tonnes.

The Canadian dollar was higher on Friday morning as the loonie climbed to 73.97 U.S. cents compared to Thursday’s close of 73.63.

About 11,400 contracts had traded as of 8:37 CST.

Prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne at 8:37 CST:

                          Price      Change

Canola            Jan     691.90     dn  8.40

                  Mar     698.30     dn  7.10

                  May     703.80     dn  7.50

                  Jul     708.50     dn  8.30

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