By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, June 25 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures were mixed on Friday with gains in the old crop July and new crop November contracts. There were declines in the other new crop positions, coming off of larger losses earlier in the session.
Sharp losses in Chicago soybeans and soyoil weighed on canola values. Gains in Chicago soymeal, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil provided support.
Aside from occasional thunderstorms over the weekend, the Prairies are forecast to remain hot and dry well into next week.
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The canola market will be positioning ahead of major reports next week. First will be Statistics Canada’s acreage report to be released on June 29. The report will answer questions as to whether planted canola acres will be above or below the federal agency’s spring estimate of 21.53 million. MarketsFarm has projected an increase to 22.35 million acres.
Then on Wednesday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is scheduled to issue its acreage and grain stocks reports. Soybean and corn acres to bump up slightly, with a small decrease for wheat.
The Canadian dollar was relatively steady at mid-afternoon. The loonie was at 81.26 U.S. cents compared to Thursday’s close of 81.20.
There were 23,730 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 21,486 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 6,978 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Jul 798.90 up 9.80
Nov 739.50 up 0.90
Jan 736.00 dn 2.80
Mar 728.00 dn 4.90
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were down sharply on Friday, after the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled that certain refineries can remain exempt from federal biofuel blending requirements. In a 6-3 decision, the court stated the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) cannot withhold further waivers from small refineries that held temporary exemption that have expired.
The markets were positioning ahead of not only the weekend, but also the June 30 acreage and grain stocks reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Trade predictions average 88.96 million acres of soybeans, for a 1.5 per cent increase from the department’s March estimate.
Also for Wednesday, the average trade estimate of soybean stocks is 773 million bushels, which would be down 44 per cent from the USDA’s stock report from a year ago.
The department reported a private sale of 112,200 tonnes of soymeal to Mexico. Seventy-five per cent of the sale is to be delivered during the 2021/22 marketing year and the remaining quarter during 2022/23.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported the soybean harvest in Argentina has been completed, with it reaping approximately 43.5 million tonnes.
CORN futures were weaker on Friday, also taking a hit from the Supreme Court decision.
The U.S. five-day weather forecast has called for two to six inches of rain over parts of the central and southern Plains and most of the Midwest. The Northern Plains and the upper Midwest are expected to get light rains at most.
The average market guess for the U.S. acreage report came in at 93.79 million acres of corn, which would be 2.9 per cent higher than the USDA’s March call.
The trade has placed corn stocks at 4.13 billion bushels, down 17.5 per cent from the same time last year.
WHEAT futures were remained mixed on Friday, with continued gains in Minneapolis and more declines in Chicago and Kansas City.
The ongoing drought across the U.S. Northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest remained the biggest factors in determining spring wheat prices. Meanwhile, more rain has added further delays the winter wheat harvest in Illinois, Indiana, Kansas and Missouri.
Estimates for Wednesday’s acreage report averaged 45.94 million acres, which would be a decline of 0.9 per cent from the USDA’s March estimate.
U.S. wheat stock projections average 861 million bushels, which would be a 17.2 per cent drop from June 2020.
