North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Day two of selloff generates more losses

Canola, soybeans, corn, wheat take a hit

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Published: November 17, 2023

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Nov. 17 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange canola prices were lower on Friday, as the selloff in the futures and equities markets carried for a second day.

Today’s pullbacks were not as severe as those incurred on Thursday, according to an analyst. He noted that crude oil prices had turned around to climb significantly higher.

Declines in European rapeseed and Malaysian contributed to the losses in canola, with pullbacks in Chicago soybeans and soymeal also weighing on values. Upticks in Chicago soyoil attempted to stymie further declines in the Canadian oilseed.

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The Canadian Grain Commission reported that after 15 weeks into the 2023/24 marketing year producer of deliveries of canola were 4.9 million tonnes, and down from the 5.58 million a year ago. Canola exports were also behind, at nearly 1.8 million versus the 2.1 million last year. At 3.06 million tonnes, domestic usage remained ahead of last year’s 2.79 million.

The Canadian dollar was higher at mid-afternoon Friday with the loonie at 72.89 U.S. cents compared to Thursday’s close of 72.73.

There were 26,551 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 23,792 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 16,534 contracts traded.

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:

Price     Change

Canola          Jan     697.20    dn  9.60

Mar     701.80    dn 10.60

May     705.60    dn 10.20

Jul     709.60    dn  9.80

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker again on Friday, due to the selloff by the spec funds.

The United States Drought Monitor reported a slight increase in the amount of land that’s abnormally dry to exceptional drought by 0.63 per cent at 55.75 per cent.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast 25 to 55 millimeters of rain for Brazil’s central-south region and 80 to 130 mm for the south.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated 18 per cent of Argentina’s projected 43 million acres of soybeans have been planted.

CORN futures were lower on Friday, unable to avoid the pressure from the selloff.

AgRural said planting of Brazil’s first corn crop was 76 per cent finished in the central-south region. Refinitiv cut three per cent from its projection on Brazil corn production, now at 121.3 million tonnes due to planting delays.

The BAGE placed Argentina’s planted corn acres are 17.6 million, down three per cent from its previous call.

WHEAT futures were lower on Friday, due to spillover from soybeans and corn as well as sluggish U.S. exports.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture attaché in Cairo estimated Egyptian wheat imports are to rise to 12 million tonnes in 2023/24 from the previous year’s 11.22 million. Domestic production was projected to drop from 5.33 million tonnes last year to 4.6 million this year. Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported that as of Nov. 12 wheat exports for 2023/24 were just short of 5.83 million tonnes, 300,000 ahead of the same time last year. Canadian durum exports of 821,300 tonnes lagged behind the 1.08 million a year ago.

Russia announced it will send 200,000 tonnes of free grain to Burkina Faso, Somalia, Eritrea, Zimbabwe, Mali and the Central African Republic.

Ukraine reported it has shipped 3.2 million tonnes of grain through its Black Sea corridor since August.

The BAGE put Argentina’s wheat crop at 20 per cent harvested. Meanwhile. StoneX reduced its forecast of the Brazil wheat harvest from 10.5 million tonnes to now 9.3 million.

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