By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Sept. 28 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures were mostly lower in choppy trading on Tuesday, with gains only in the November contract.
Weakness in the Chicago soy complex and in the crude oil markets weighed on values. Support came from gains in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil.
At mid-afternoon the Canadian dollar was lower with the loonie at 78.88 U.S. cents, compared to Monday’s close of 79.13.
A trader stated that the Canadian oilseed needs to remain “extraordinarily expensive and extraordinarily high” as to ration very tight supplies.
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On top of that, there’s growing speculation in the trade that this year’s canola harvest could be short of the 12.8 million tonnes projected by Statistics Canada.
Daytime temperatures ranging from the high teens to low 20’s degrees Celsius in the western half of the Prairies upwards to 30 C in the eastern half will continue to spur on the region’s harvest. Manitoba is scheduled to issue its weekly crop report late this afternoon.
There were 25,913 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 24,393 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 22,438 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Nov 885.70 up 2.10
Jan 875.00 dn 0.70
Mar 865.20 dn 2.00
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were weaker on Tuesday, due to a selloff in the United States stock markets and gains in the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its weekly crop progress report late Monday afternoon. As of Sept. 26, soybean conditions were holding at 58 per cent good to excellent with 16 per cent of the crop harvested. That’s a gain of 10 points on the week and three above the five-year average.
The USDA is scheduled to issues its small grains and quarterly stocks reports on Thursday at 11 am CDT. On Friday, the department will release its monthly fats and oils plus its grain crushings reports at 2 pm CDT.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. maintained his U.S. soybean yield forecast at 50.3 bushels per acre for 118.12 million tonnes.
Parts of Brazil have received rain over the last 10 days, which will aid the planting of soybeans. AgRural reported 1.3 per cent of Brazil’s soybeans had been seeded as of Sept. 23, almost double the same time last year.
Reports said that rapeseed planting in France, Germany and the United Kingdom could increase as prices remain high. However, poor weather conditions in Poland could result in less rapeseed being sown there.
CORN futures were lower on Tuesday, also due in part to harvest pressure as yields are reportedly better than expected.
U.S. corn conditions remained at 59 per cent good to excellent and 18 per cent of the crop has been combined. As with soybeans, that’s a gain of 10 points and three ahead of the average.
The USDA reported a private sale of 150,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico. Delivery is to be during the current marketing year.
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Rep. Cheri Bustos of Illinois continued to call on President Joe Biden to not lower biofuel blending mandates. Several refiners have been lobbying for such reductions.
Dr. Cordonnier trimmed his projected U.S. corn yield by one bu/ac. at 175 for 377.72 million tonnes.
Corn production in China for 2021/22 is expected to increase 12 per cent from last year, according to the China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC). In turn, that’s projected to lower the country’s corn imports from 28.96 million tonnes last year to slightly below 20 million this year.
In South America, Brazil corn exports for September totaled 2.5 million tonnes, for a drop of 61.5 per cent from a year ago. In Argentina, dryness could slow the planting of its corn crop.
WHEAT futures were weaker on Tuesday, taking their cue from soybeans and corn.
The USDA reported that 34 per cent of the U.S. winter wheat crop has been planted, a gain of 13 points on the week and two ahead of the five-year average. Nine per cent of the crop has emerged, for an increase of three from the previous week and one ahead of the average.
The dryness in Argentina could pose a threat to its wheat crop. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has projected the crop to come in at 19.2 million tonnes, of which approximately seven million has already been sold.
Algeria purchased almost 500,000 tonnes of wheat from France, because prices in Russia were too high.
