North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Old crop canola ‘extraordinarily expensive’

U.S. markets a mixed bag

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Published: March 4, 2021

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, March 4 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures hit new highs on Thursday, but those gains lost about half of their strength when the session ended.

At one point the May contract was up its daily limit of C$30 at C$797.30 per tonne, before easing back.

Tight old crop supplies continued to underpin values, with speculation that Prairie farmers have very little canola remaining. A trader said that has made old crop prices “extraordinarily expensive,” while new crop canola is “dirt cheap.”

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Additional support came from a spike in Chicago soyoil, as well as gains in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar slipped under 79 U.S. cents. The loonie was at 78.96, after closing Wednesday at 79.17.

There were 30,638 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 11,361 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 8,830 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola May 782.30 up 15.00
Jul 740.30 up 12.00
Nov 615.90 up 5.30
Jan 618.50 up 5.20

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were higher on Thursday, but had backed off from new contract highs earlier in the session.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its weekly export sales report and for the week ended Feb. 25 soybean sales were 334,000 tonnes of old crop and 199,400 tonnes of new crop. Soymeal exports sales rose 17 per cent from the previous week at 187,400 tonnes. Soyoil came in at 5,500 tonnes for an increase of 25 per cent.

The USDA is scheduled to issue its next supply and demand report on March 9. Expectations are for soybean ending stocks to hold or be slightly reduced.

Wet conditions in Brazil and dryness in Argentina continued to play havoc with soybeans. That said, a record amount of South American soybeans will soon flood the global market.

CORN futures were lower on Thursday, following poor export sales

The USDA reported corn sales of 115,900 tonnes of old crop, which was down 74 per cent from the previous week. New crop sales totaled 38,800 tonnes.

As with soybeans, corn ending stocks in the next S&D report are expected to remain where they are or be trimmed somewhat.

In Brazil, wet conditions and the slow soybean harvest still plagued the planting of the second corn crop.
Ukraine’s corn production in 2021 is forecast to be 34 million tonnes, for an increase of four million tonnes from the previous estimate.

WHEAT futures were mixed on Thursday, with losses in Chicago and Kansas City wheat, but a small gain in Minneapolis.

At 219,200 tonnes, old crop wheat export sales bumped up 31 per cent from the previous week. New crop sales amounted to 23,500 tonnes.

Little change is forecast for wheat ending stocks in Tuesday’s USDA report.

Projections for Ukraine’s 2021 wheat crop are for 29 million to 30 million tonnes, would be a gain of four million to five million tonnes.

In international purchases, Taiwan acquired 100,000 tonnes of U.S. wheat, and Algeria reportedly bought 180,000 to 240,000 tonnes of durum from the U.S., Canada and Mexico.

END

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