By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures were mixed on Wednesday in one of the busiest trading days in recent months. The front months saw pull backs, especially with the January contract, which has an tremendous long position.
A trader said there was a large amount of buying going on the United States markets, specifically money that thinks it can turn a quick profit on ag business. That resulted in gains in the Chicago soy complex, although soyoil gave up most its increases by the close.
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While there was support from higher Malaysian palm oil, there was pressure from declines in European rapeseed.
The trader said some of the losses in canola might have been due to the loss of ground links to Vancouver, following torrential rains that wiped out sections of rail line. However, he pointed to the rolling out of the January contract as the main reason.
Also, tight supplies and price rationing still underpinned canola values.
At mid-afternoon the Canadian dollar was weaker in the face of a much stronger U.S. dollar. The loonie fell to 79.31 U.S. cents, compared to Tuesday’s close of 79.68.
There were 55,608 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 23,224 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 45,040 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Jan 1,003.70 dn 12.10
Mar 984.70 dn 1.70
May 955.80 up 3.30
Jul 920.70 up 10.60
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were significantly higher on Wednesday, benefitting from a large amount of buying.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported two private sales, one for 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China and other for 30,000 tonnes of soyoil to India. Delivery for both is to be during the current marketing year.
Barchart’s CmdtyView forecast average the U.S. soybean yield at 51.36 bushels per acre. The consultancy pegged harvested acres at 86.77 million which would mean production of about 4.46 billion bushels.
IHS Markit estimated U.S. soybean acres for 2022/23 to be at 87.94 million, up from the 87.24 million seeded the previous year.
India imported 13.53 million tonnes of vegetable oils during its 2020/21 marketing year, which ended Oct. 31. That was a 63 per cent spike compared to the previous year.
CORN futures had modest gains on Wednesday, catching some spillover from soybeans and wheat.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported average ethanol production for the week ended Nov. 12 was 1.06 million barrels per day, up 1.9 per cent from the previous week. Ethanol stocks slipped a little more than one per cent at 20.08 million barrels.
CmdtyView pegged the average U.S. corn yield at 182.8 bu/ac. on 84 million acres, producing 15.36 billion bushels.
IHS Markit has projected U.S. corn acres to fall 2.7 per cent in 2022/23 at 90.78 million. In 2021/22, there were 93.30 million acres planted.
WHEAT futures were stronger on Wednesday, also getting support from an upswing in buying.
IHS Markit estimated total U.S. wheat acres for 2022/23 at 49.37 million, for a 5.7 per cent from last year’s acres. The consultancy placed winter wheat acres at 34.39 million, up 2.2 per cent from a year ago, as well as spring wheat at 13.03 million for a 14.1 per cent jump. Durum acres are to be 1.95 million, rising 16.8 per cent.
An official with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada who spoke at the Global Grain conference in Geneva stated the department expects a six per cent increase in Canadian wheat acres in 2022, along with a 10 per cent expansion of durum acres.
FranceAgriMer projected 2021/22 French soft wheat exports outside of the European Union at 9.4 million tonnes, which would be two million tonnes more than last year.
In international purchases, the Philippines bought 220,000 tonnes of feed wheat, Algeria reportedly purchased 600,000 to 800,000 tonnes of wheat and Egypt was said to have acquired almost 60,000 tonnes.
