North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Strong soyoil propels canola rally

CBOT beans up on Chinese promises

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Published: August 26, 2020

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Aug. 26 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were higher on Wednesday, getting support from Chicago soyoil, which is at a seven-month high.

There was also support from European rapeseed, while lower Malaysian palm oil tempered gains.

As did the Canadian dollar, which pushed above 76 United States cents. By mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was at 76.02 U.S. cents, compared Tuesday’s close of 75.79.

The Manitoba weekly crop report said the canola harvest was only at two per cent complete, but there was a lot of swathing throughout the province.

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Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada issued its monthly production report on Tuesday. The report pegged 2020/21 canola production at nearly 18.9 million tonnes, with total wheat at almost 33.9 million tonnes, and approximately 13.8 million tonnes of corn.

Statistics Canada is scheduled to issue its principal field crops report on Monday. A trader cautioned the data for the report might not account for recent hot, dry weather. He said the surveys were carried out in July, when crops were in better shape. Nevertheless, yields are still expected to be plentiful.

There were 25,148 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 25,011 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 16,616 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 493.60 up 2.60
Jan 501.70 up 2.80
Mar 508.00 up 3.00

May 513.40 up 3.10

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were higher on Wednesday, benefitting from positive news regarding sales to China.

The United States Department of Agriculture reported a private sale of 400,000 tonnes of soybeans. Delivery is scheduled for the 2020/21 marketing year.

A report from Bloomberg news said China is planning to buy 40 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in 2020. The amount would be 10 per cent more than record exports in 2016. Despite some market skepticism, the Chinese government said its purchases will accelerate during the second half of this year.

The amount of the U.S. soybean crop that’s seen minimal rainfall has jumped from 41 per cent a month ago to 81 per cent. This marked the worst deficiency in soil moisture since August 2013, according to a report.

Brazil has exported 6.02 million tonnes of soybeans in August. That’s under ANEC’s forecast for 6.58 million tonnes.

After reviewing Brazil’s soybean crop estimates, CONAB discovered there was 14.4 million additional tonnes that previously forecast over the last seven years. That includes increasing its 2020/21 production forecast by nearly 3.6 million tonnes.

CORN futures were steady on Wednesday after yesterday’s round of short-selling.

Rain has been forecast for parts of the U.S Corn Belt, but some reports suggested that it’s already too late for any precipitation to be beneficial.

The European Union slashed its corn import tariff from 5.48 Euros per tonne to 0.26 Euros per tonne, effective today.
Corn exports out of Brazil were reported at 6.79 million tonnes this month. That’s under ANEC’s forecast of 7.25 million tonnes.

WHEAT futures were higher on Wednesday as the U.S. Dollar Index dipped under 93.00 points, making U.S. wheat more appealing on the global market.

Agritel said the 2020 French soft wheat crop from is projected to come in at 29.2 million tonnes. That’s well below 2019 production of 39.5 million tonnes. Also, the consultancy estimated soft wheat exports to fall by 40 per cent in 2020/21.

In international purchases, Egypt bought 530,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia. Taiwan purchased 109,000 tonnes of wheat from the U.S. Turkey has acquired 390,000 tonnes, but the country of origin was not named.

Russia reported its wheat harvest is 65.3 per cent complete.

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