By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, April 22 (MarketsFarm) – ICE Futures canola contracts finished much weaker on Monday hitting new contract lows, as trading resumed following the Easter long-weekend.
The May contract lost C$6 to close at C$443.10 per tonne on Monday. The July contract fell C$5.80 to finish at C$451.40 per tonne.
A Winnipeg-based trader said the commodity fund roll is pretty much complete for May-July, and spec funds have been exiting their May contracts as well.
StatsCanada will release its 2019/20 Principal Field Crop Acreage report on Wednesday. It’s widely expected canola acres will be down in 2019. Market estimates range from 19.5 million to 22.4 million acres. Last year, Canadian farmers planted 22.8 million acres of canola.
Read Also
North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola rises, down day for grains
Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm – Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange were higher on Friday despite weakness in most comparable…
The effects of China’s ban on Canadian canola are being felt, as for the week ending April 14, less than 151,000 tonnes of canola were exported. Overall canola exports are 600,000 tonnes behind pace. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has projected a record for ending stocks of canola at 3.5 million tonnes.
The Canadian dollar was a little below 75 U.S. cents by midafternoon on Monday.
There were 32,640 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Thursday when 34,866 contracts changed hands.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Monday due to expectations of more acres being planted by farmers in the United States this year.
Rain is expected for the Upper Midwest this week and will slow planting. At this time U.S. farmers are estimated to have no more than two per cent of their oilseed crops planted.
Weekly export inspections were poor last week, totaling 382,000 tonnes.
U.S./China trade talks will resume this week. Any positive news, backed up by solid numbers, could push bids upward. However, African swine fever has sharply reduced China’s demand for soybeans and oilseeds.
The Rosario Grain Exchange upped its projection of Argentina’s soybean crop to 56 million tonnes. The United States Department of Agriculture estimated Argentina soybean production at 55 million tonnes. Both estimates are a vast improvement of the 37.8 million tonnes Argentina produced in 2018.
CORN futures were weaker on Monday, as funds are said to be holding a seriously short position, about 320,000 contracts, according to a report.
U.S. corn export inspections did well last week, at 1.3 million tonnes.
Planting in the U.S. has reached approximately seven per cent.
WHEAT futures were weaker on Monday as large global supplies helped to push prices down.
U.S. wheat export inspections came to 811,000 tonnes last week, a good number for otherwise troubled exports in a very competitive global market.
MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett has projected Russia’s 2019 wheat crop at 81.5 million tonnes, a jump of 10 million tonnes. A private French forecaster pegged Russia’s wheat crop at 78.5 million tonnes this year.
The World Trade Organization ruled in favour of the U.S. on China’s application of tariff-rate quotas for wheat, corn and rice. The April 18 ruling stated China failed to apply the quotas “in a transparent, predictable and fair basis” in 2015.
