By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Nov. 9 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Tuesday, testing contract highs as the market reacted to updated supply/demand data from the United States Department of Agriculture.
The USDA’s monthly report was bullish for soybeans, with average yields revised down from earlier estimates. The resulting rally in soybeans and soyoil provided spillover support for canola.
Canola was already turning higher ahead of the report, with tight supplies and bullish technical signals underpinning the Canadian oilseed independently.
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However, ideas that canola is looking overpriced at current levels did temper the advances somewhat with profit-taking likely coming forward at the highs.
About 19,925 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 17,602 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 11,826 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Tuesday, as monthly supply/demand data from the United States Department of Agriculture sparked a rally.
The government agency unexpectedly lowered its yield estimate for this year’s U.S. soybean crop to 51.2 bushels per acre, from an earlier forecast of 51.5. General expectations had been for an increase in average yields.
Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 were raised to 340 million bushels, from 320 million in October. However, that was still short of trade guesses closer to 360 million.
The U.S. soybean harvest was 87 per cent complete as of this past Sunday, with weather forecasts looking reasonably favourable over the next week.
CORN posted solid gains, but lagged soybeans to the upside.
Average U.S. corn yields were raised by half a bushel from October, to 177 bushels per acre, which was in line with expectations.
U.S. corn ending stocks for 2021/22 at 1.493 billion bushels were down slightly from the previous forecast, but still slightly above average trade guesses.
The world corn carryout for 2021/22 was bearish, at 304.4 million tonnes. That was up by nearly three million tonnes from the October forecast, and well above the upwardly revised old crop carryout of 291.9 million
The U.S. corn harvest was 84 per cent complete.
WHEAT was higher as well, underpinned by tightening world supply projections.
U.S. wheat carryout for 2021/22 was raised by three million bushels from October, to 583 million.
however, projected world wheat ending stocks, at 275.8 million tonnes, came in below average trade guesses and compare with the 288 million tonne carryout from the previous year.
