North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola down again, lacking supportive news

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Published: May 2, 2019

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

Winnipeg, May 2 (MarketsFarm) – ICE Futures canola contracts fell to fresh contract lows for the fourth-straight session on Thursday as the market continued to lack any supportive news.

Bearish technical signals, Canada’s ongoing trade dispute with China, losses in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans, and a lack of end user demand all weighed on values.

While expectations for a reduction in seeded canola area this year provided some underlying support, large old crop supplies were seen as limiting any concerns over a smaller new crop.

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About 18,454 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 21,572 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 8,868 of the contracts trade.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade hit fresh contract lows on Thursday, as the market reacted to disappointing weekly export sales numbers.

The United States Department of Agriculture reported weekly soybean export sales of just over 300,000 tonnes, which was below trade guesses and about half of what was sold the previous week. Soyoil and meal sales were also soft.

The lack of progress on trade talks with China, South American harvest pressure, and expectations that Midwestern seeding delays will see some intended corn acres switch to beans instead also weighed on values.

CORN futures were higher, as corn seeding continues to run well behind normal across the Midwest. Cool and wet weather in the forecasts expected to cause more delays.

U.S. corn export sales in the latest weekly report of 586,000 tonnes were at the lower end of trade estimates.

WHEAT futures were higher, seeing some follow-through buying on yesterday’s gains as end-user bargain hunting and speculative short covering provided support.

The gains in wheat came despite disappointing weekly export sales, with old crop sales of 122,061 tonnes the lowest total of the marketing year to date.

However, new crop business was solid at nearly 300,000 tonnes.

The Wheat Quality Council tour going on this week was showing average yields well above what was reported at this time last year.

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