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North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola settles mixed

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Published: January 16, 2018

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

WINNIPEG, Jan. 16 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were mixed at Tuesday’s close, with losses in the front months and gains in the more deferred positions as the old/new crop spreads narrowed in.

Ample old crop supplies and chart-based speculative selling accounted for some of the weakness in the most active nearby contracts. Losses in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans and recent strength in the Canadian dollar also weighed on values.

A lack of significant end user demand contributed to the declines, with most end users thought to be well covered for the time being.

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However, gains in CBOT soybeans provided some spillover support. Reluctant farmer selling on the other side also helped keep the losses in check.

About 11,996 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 3,388 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 7,698 of the contracts traded.

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved higher on Tuesday, seeing some follow-through buying after Friday’s gains.

The monthly soybean crush in the United States hit a record high of 166.4 million bushels in December, according to a report from the National Oilseed Processors Association, adding to the firmer tone in the futures.

Persistent weather concerns in parts of South America were also supportive. While Argentina has seen some rainfall recently, hot temperatures are hampering the benefit of the moisture. However, beneficial precipitation in Brazil kept the gains in check.

Corn futures remain stuck in a rather narrow range, with prices steady to slightly higher on the day following soybeans. Solid demand underneath the market also helped underpin corn.

Wheat was steady to lower, as Friday’s larger-than-expected winter wheat acreage estimate from the USDA continued to weigh on values despite the fact that the planted area is still the lowest in more than 100 years.

The nearby technical bias for has shifted to the downside, which contributed to the declines.

Improving conditions for winter wheat crops in Ukraine were another bearish influence today.

However, the Minneapolis spring wheat futures lagged to the downside, amid concerns over tightening supplies of higher protein wheat.

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