By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, July 31 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were lower on Wednesday, as the Chicago soy complex weighed on values.
The soy complex fell today largely on a negative impact from United States/China trade talks. Although both sides commented talks ended on a positive note, with an agreement to resume negotiations in September, China didn’t come through on its promise to purchase more U.S. farm goods.
Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. stated that Western Canada likely won’t have a stretch of above normal temperatures in the fall. He said frost will occur around its average dates, posing a threat to crops that got off to a slow start this year.
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Wednesday marked the end of the 2018/19 crop year for canola and several other commodities. The 2019/20 crop year begins Thursday.
There were 12,241 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 11,738 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 3,288 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Nov 443.50 dn 4.90
Jan 451.10 dn 5.40
Mar 458.20 dn 5.60
May 463.90 dn 5.30
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were down on Wednesday, was United States/China trade talks had a negative impact.
Top negotiators for the U.S. and China met Wednesday in Shanghai for what was said to be constructive talks. While the U.S. failed to get China to agree to buy more U.S. farm goods, the latter suggested it would, but didn’t make any promises, which was a cause for concern. Both sides did agree to reconvene face-to-face talks in early September in Washington, D.C.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced this morning that an export sale of 104,500 tonnes of soybeans was made by private exporters to unknown destinations.
Ahead of Thursday’s export sales report from the USDA, trade expectation for old crop soybeans were from net reductions of 50,000 tonnes to net sales of 250,000 tonnes. Export sales of new crop soybeans were 150,000 to 450,000 tonnes, with the same range for soymeal exports. Soyoil was forecast to come in at 5,000 to 35,000 tonnes.
A consultancy firm issued an estimate of the Brazil soybean crop for 2019/20 at a record 126 million tonnes, almost 10 million tonnes more than the country’s 2018/19 crop.
CORN futures were lower on Wednesday, on data from the Energy Information Administration that showed ethanol production was down.
Production for the week ending July 26 was at 1.03 million barrels per day (BPD), down 8,000 BPD. Ethanol stocks were at 24.47 million barrels, for a gain of 779,000 barrels from the previous week.
Trade expectations for corn export sales ranges from 150,000 to 400,000 tonnes of old crop and 150,000 to 450,000 tonnes for new crop.
MarketsFarm analyst Mike Jubinville reported that Nutrien has estimated the U.S. corn crop to be between 85 million to 87 million acres, which would be lowest corn acres in a decade. The USDA pegged corn acres 91.7 million, but that number will be revised on August 12, when the department issues its new acre numbers.
Brazil’s 2019/20 corn crop has estimated at 104.3 million tonnes, up 4.3 million tonnes from the country’s 2018/19 crop.
WHEAT futures were down on Wednesday, caught up in the spillover from soybeans and corn.
Trade expectations for wheat export sales were 300,000 to 600,000 tonnes.
International wheat purchases include the Philippines having bought 165,000 tonnes on Wednesday from optional origins. Also, Algeria acquired 570,000 tonnes, most likely from France.
