By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada
Winnipeg, Sept. 19 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were stronger on Tuesday, posting gains despite a record large crop estimate from Statistics Canada.
Using satellite imagery, the new model-based crop estimate from StatsCan pegged the country’s canola crop at a record 19.7 million tonnes. That would be well above the survey-based estimate of 18.2 million tonnes released in August.
However, industry participants still think the actual crop may be larger still, which muted the response in the futures to the bearish number.
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Cold and wet harvest-delaying weather in parts of Western Canada provided underlying support for canola. Gains in Chicago Board of trade soyoil futures added to the firmer tone in the Canadian market, although soybeans were down in Chicago.
About 18,457 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 13,635 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 4,518 of the contracts traded.
Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded, although prices were revised after the close.
Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Tuesday, as seasonal harvest pressure weighed on prices.
The US soybean harvest was four per cent complete in the latest USDA report, which was on par with the year-ago pace and only slightly behind the five-year average of five per cent. Early yield reports are generally looking good, keeping beans under pressure, according to participants.
Condition ratings declined slightly on the week, moving to 59 per cent good to excellent, from 60 last week.
Canada’s soybean crop was estimated at a record 8.3 million tonnes by Statistics Canada, which compares with the August survey-based estimate of 7.7 million, and the year-ago level of 6.5 million.
Corn prices also lost ground with seasonal harvest pressure on Tuesday. The US corn harvest was seven per cent complete in the latest weekly report, which is slightly behind the 11 per cent average completion rate for this time of year.
While harvest delays were somewhat supportive, yield results for what is coming off the fields were generally beating expectations.
A lack of any significant export demand also weighed on corn prices.
Canadian corn production was estimated at 14.3 million tonnes by StatsCan, which compares with the August estimate of 13.6 million and the year-ago level of 13.2 million.
All three US wheat contracts mostly were lower on the day. The US winter wheat crop was 13 per cent seeded in the latest weekly report, which compares with the five-year average of 15 per cent. Fires in Montana and dryness elsewhere were causing delays in some areas.
Canada’s wheat crop was estimated at 27.1 million tonnes by StatsCan. That’s well above the August estimate of 25.5 million, but still below the 31.7 million tonnes grown last year.
