North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Hot weather boosts canola

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Published: July 28, 2017

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, July 28 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were up on Friday, amid ongoing concerns over hot and dry Prairie growing conditions.

Heat warnings from Environment Canada across much of the southern growing regions of Saskatchewan and Alberta were seen raising concerns over additional yield losses for the already stressed canola crops.

Chart-based speculative buying added to the firmer tone in canola, as the technical signals have shifted higher following the bounce off of nearby lows earlier in the week.

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Gains in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans and soyoil were also supportive for canola.

However, a sharply stronger tone in the Canadian dollar tempered the advances. The currency was up three-quarters of a cent relative to its US counterpart.

About 12,113 canola contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 9,866 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 1,680 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded, although prices were revised after the close.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were up by two to six cents per bushel on Friday.

Forecasts calling for hot and dry conditions across much of the Midwest into August accounted for much of the strength, as the lack of moisture at this time of year should cut into the yield prospects for the developing crop.

Sharp losses in the US dollar index added to the firmer tone, as the declining currency should be making exports more attractive to global buyers.

However, large South American supplies remained a bearish influence in the background.

SOYOIL futures were stronger on Friday.

SOYMEAL futures settled lower on Friday, as spreading against soyoil weighed on prices.

CORN futures in Chicago were steady to up one cent per bushel on Friday.

Midwestern dryness concerns were also supportive for corn, with traders keeping a bit of a weather premium in the market ahead of the weekend.

Reports of declining crop ratings for the corn crop in France were also supportive, although conditions in Europe remain considerably better than last year overall.

WHEAT futures in Chicago were up by one cent bushel, while Minneapolis spring wheat was up by as much as seven cents.

A crop tour of the US spring wheat regions pegged average yields at only 38 bushels per acre, which compares with nearly 46 last year. The tour results didn’t account for lost acres due to abandonment in the drought stricken Northern Plains, with actual production likely ending up even lower.

In other wheat news, France’s wheat harvest was reported to be 85 per cent complete, while farmers in Argentina have seeded 92 per cent of their next crop.

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