Amid food cost concerns in Canada, the average retail beef price throughout the second half of 2022 has been historically competitive with retail pork and chicken prices. The competitive retail beef price contributes to higher projected beef consumption for 2022. A sharp correction in the average retail beef price from September to October 2022 was a seasonal expectation based on historical price trends. That beef prices declined to below 2021 levels, however, was noteworthy and a potential sign of waning inflation.
The average beef retail price has trended lower January to October 2022 and followed the steady decline in beef wholesale values throughout the year. The ribeye and tenderloin were flagged as holiday favourites in October and November, supporting a typical holiday rally in wholesale beef prices.
Food service sales in Canada continued to improve quarter after quarter despite the many pressure points applied to pocketbooks this year. Full service and limited service sales regained equal market share in the third quarter of 2022 for the first time since 2019.
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Higher beef production in 2022 bolstered historically strong beef exports even as the proportion of beef exported declined slightly this year. That means that more Canadian beef supplies are projected to have stayed in Canada in 2022 compared with 2021. Capacity constraints in Canada spurred a slight uptick in beef imports, particularly from non-traditional suppliers.
Canada’s resource sector supported third-quarter 2022 economic growth and is likely to lend more support under a depreciating Canadian dollar. Despite chilling headwinds moving into 2023, there are indicators that Canadian consumption may remain insulated.
