The threat of enormous tariffs on goods and services imported into the U.S. from numerous countries has dominated the first eight months of the Trump administration. President Trump has used tariff threats to extract trade deals from the European Union, Japan and Indonesia. But the threat of new tariffs still hangs over Canada and Mexico, and they have been implemented on many Brazilian imports to the U.S.
This leaves the U.S beef industry at risk from new tariffs on live cattle and beef imports. They would obviously increase the price of animals entering the U.S. for feeding or direct slaughter. Imports of feeder cattle from Mexico are still suspended due to New World screwworm disease. As of July 28, they totalled 230,638 head, compared to 862,895 head in the same period last year. For the same period, the U.S. imported 428,979 slaughter and feeder cattle from Canada.
The biggest tariff effect currently involves beef imports from Brazil. U.S. beef imports soared in May, reflecting the ongoing demand for lean beef. Imports totalled 550 million pounds, more than 60 per cent higher year-over-year and the second-highest monthly import total behind January of this year, says USDA’s Economic Research Service. Brazil was the largest contributor to the increase with imports of 175 million pounds, more than five times the amount imported in May 2024. Year-to-date imports from Brazil were more than double the same period last year at 666 million pounds. Volume was up 347 per cent year-over-year.
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However, these imports likely disappeared in August because Trump imposed 50 per cent tariffs on all Brazilian imports on August 1. Brazil could lose at least $1.3 billion worth of beef and livestock product sales to the U.S. in the second half of 2025 unless the nation can negotiate some relief from the additional tariff, said the Brazilian Meat Packers Association. The imposition of an additional 50 per cent tariff on Brazilian beef on top of an existing tariff of 26.4 per cent would take the tariff total to 76.4 per cent. Trade would be unviable under those terms, say trade analysts inside and outside Brazil.
The U.S. is now Brazil’s second-largest beef export destination after China. January through May, the U.S. imported 165,000 metric tonnes of Brazilian beef, up 85 per cent on the same period last year. The Brazilian government on July 22 sent a formal message to Washington expressing its indignation over the additional tariff imposed on Brazilian exports. Should the 50 per cent tariff be imposed and Brazilian beef imports stopped, U.S. end users such as small hamburger chains and small grocery stores would be most affected.
Meanwhile, Australia has lifted its restrictions on imports of Canadian and U.S. beef, allowing fresh and frozen products to enter the country. However, the move is largely symbolic as little U.S. beef is likely to be exported there until U.S. cattle numbers and beef production increase significantly. A U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement took effect in 2005 and was intended to allow U.S. beef to be sold in Australia. But Australia used numerous tactics to deny access, which angered and frustrated U.S. beef industry organizations. It has finally relented, saying it is satisfied with traceability programs put in place by the U.S. industry.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Meat Export Federation said it greatly appreciates the Trump administration’s new trade agreement with Japan, which reassures and expands opportunities in the number two export destination for U.S. beef and pork. Trump announced what he called a “massive” deal with Japan that includes reciprocal tariffs of 15 per cent on the country’s exports to the U.S., with auto duties reportedly being lowered to that level.
