Canadian wheat exports are running at a record pace through the first 12 weeks of the 2025/26 (Aug/Jul) marketing year, according to the latest weekly grain handling statistics from the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC). Meanwhile, canola exports are behind on the year and well off the average.
With harvest pressure on canola over, the Canadian oilseed could track higher until spring, said David Derwin, commodity futures advisor for Ventum Financial in Winnipeg, Man. Although he cautioned there will be some rough patches along the way.
Analysts have raised their estimates for Australia’s wheat harvest, a Reuters poll showed, as better-than-expected yields in western cropping regions boosted the production outlook despite losses caused by dry conditions in parts of the south.
Updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released Oct. 17, included only minor adjustments to the balance sheets for the country’s major grains and oilseeds.
Canola futures trended higher during the week ended Oct. 15, with the November contract settling above its 20-day moving average for the first time in nearly a month. Optimism over thawing trade relations with China contributed to the gains, although the lack of any concrete movement to end the stiff tariffs on Canadian canola seed or oil tempered the advances.
Look for November canola to slip below C$600 per tonne by the end of Thanksgiving week, said Phil Speiss, trader with RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.