Corn down, soybeans steady in latest U.S. supply/demand report

MarketsFarm — Corn production in the U.S. has been projected to drop by almost nine per cent in 2019, according to the latest world agriculture supply and demand estimates (WASDE) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The department released its report on June 11, with some notable changes and ‘non-changes’ compared to its May report.

In USDA’s June estimates, corn production dropped from 381.78 million tonnes to now 347.49 million tonnes, which would make for the smallest crop since 2015-16.

“Unprecedented planting delays observed through early June are expected to prevent some plantings and reduce yield prospects,” the WASDE report stated.

USDA dropped corn yields by 10 bushels per acre, and projected a harvest of 166 bushels per acre. Also, the department lowered the amount of area planted by three million acres, to 89.8 million.

Corn beginning stocks were increased 4.8 per cent to 55.77 million tonnes, reflecting the drop in exports to China pushing up supplies. Ending stocks were lowered by 32.6 per cent, with an estimate of 42.56 million tonnes.

Despite speculation of U.S. soybean production increasing, as farmers were widely expected to switch from corn to planting soybeans, USDA didn’t change many of its May estimates.

“Although adverse weather has significantly slowed soybean planting progress this year, area and production forecasts are unchanged with several weeks remaining in the planting season,” the WASDE report said.

USDA’s soybean acre estimates from May to June remained at 84.6 million and yields per acre stayed at 49.5 bushels. Production as well held firm at 112.95 million tonnes.

Beginning stocks rose 7.5 per cent to 29.13 million tonnes. Ending stocks increased by 7.7 per cent to 28.45 million.

Total wheat production in the U.S., was increased to 51.78 million tonnes, up 160,000 tonnes.

Winter wheat production was raised slightly 0.5 per cent to 34.673 million tonnes. When combined with hard red wheat, these offset declines in soft red winter and white winter.

USDA maintained its estimates of total wheat area planted at 45.8 million acres, and yield per acre was increased by 0.1 bushel per acre, to 48.7 bushels.

Beginning stocks were lowered slightly by 0.2 per cent to 29.99 million tonnes. Ending stocks were reduced by 0.6 per cent to 29.16 million tonnes.

USDA will publish its wheat by class estimates in its July WASDE report.

— Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.