While last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what was forecast, I was off on how cold the temperatures got. It was forecasted to be cold, but it didn’t look like it was going to bone-chilling cold! Thanks to the infamous polar vortex, our cold weather turned into bone-chilling. Fortunately we are not seeing record breaking cold.
Unfortunately, it looks like the cold weather will stick around for at least this forecast period. Maybe a little bit longer. There are some signs of this pattern breaking down near the end of the month, so let’s keep our fingers crossed.
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As I stated earlier, the polar vortex dropped into northeastern Canada over the last week. If you are not sure what the polar vortex is, let’s just say the polar vortex simply means it is going to be cold! The polar vortex is a pool of very cold air. The rotation around the sprawling low opens the door or arctic and polar high pressure to drop southwards across western Canada.
We are starting this forecast period with cold high pressure firmly in place across the Prairies. This high will slowly drift to the south and east. As it does, an area of low pressure is forecasted to push in from the Pacific over the American northwest. This low is forecasted to stay south of border but should pull enough warm air northwards to give at least southern Alberta a couple of days of slightly warmer temperatures.
Over the weekend and the first half of next week, another Arctic high is forecasted to drop southwards into the Prairies bringing an end to any warming Alberta saw, and simply reinforcing the cold air in place across Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Alberta
This forecast period starts off with Arctic high pressure exiting the region to the southeast. As the high pulls away, weak ripples of energy are forecasted to slide southwards along the retreating edge of the high. This will bring some clouds along with the chance of flurries on Wednesday to western parts of central and northern Alberta.
Alberta will then see a slight moderation in temperatures from Thursday to Saturday as an area of low-pressure slides by to the south. Expect daytime highs over southern regions to be in the -10 to -14 C range with overnight lows falling to around -20 C. Further north, daytime highs will be around -18 C with overnight lows falling to around -25 C.
Over the weekend, another Arctic high is forecasted to drop southwards bringing colder temperatures. Expect daytime highs across most regions to be in the -16 to -22 C range with overnight lows falling into the -24 to -30 C range. This high is forecasted to slide to the east by Tuesday which should allow for temperatures to begin warming back up on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
It’s a short and cold forecast for these two regions. Arctic high pressure is forecasted to dominate the weather over the next seven days. Expect daytime highs to be in the -20 to -24 C range with overnight lows dropping into the -27 to -32 C range. Just how cold it will get depends on cloud cover. Any patches of low cloud that do develop will help boost temperatures by several degrees, especially at night. Exactly where or when these cloud patches will be is hard to figure out
Any wind with these temperatures will create high windchill values. Fortunately winds look to be relatively light for most of this forecast period. Friday may be a little windy from the northeast across the extreme southern parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba as an area of low pressure cuts through the central U.S. Manitoba may see slightly higher winds again on Sunday as the Arctic high pushes’ southeastwards through Saskatchewan.
There are signs that temperatures will begin to moderate across Saskatchewan next Wednesday with milder temperatures moving into Manitoba on Thursday. Heck, the weather models are showing above freezing highs moving in by the weekend, but as I always say – that’s a long way off and plenty can happen between now and then. We will keep our fingers crossed!
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
