First off, I must apologize for not producing an update to the last forecast; I had the opportunity to do some backwoods camping, which meant I was off the grid for about five days. I’m back now, and from the weather model runs I’ve been able to check out, this forecast period is going to be another tough one as there is a lot of variability between the different weather models and even some big differences between individual runs of each model.
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With that said, here is the big weather picture that appears to be coming into shape across the Prairies. Currently there is a surface low and associated upper low exiting the eastern Prairies, with a second low is developing over central Alberta. A weak area of high pressure is in place over northern Manitoba. This setup puts most of the Prairies under a general northwesterly flow. This flow will push the Alberta low to the southeast over the week, with it ending up over southeastern Manitoba by late Friday. This system will bring cloudy to partly cloudy skies along with widespread showers and possibly some steady rain along its path.
Over the weekend another system is forecasted to develop over northern Saskatchewan and drop southeast into Manitoba, bring more cool and unsettled weather to these regions. Over Alberta it looks to be mostly dry and seasonable. The weather models then deviate with the Canadian model, showing ridging and high pressure building in, especially over western regions, while the U.S. model shows a rather strong low developing over southern Alberta on Monday and then tracking eastward into southern Manitoba by Wednesday.
Alberta
The low developing over central Alberta will bring cloudy to partly cloudy skies along with showers and thundershowers to most of Alberta over the next day or so. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs around the 20 C mark and overnight lows falling to around 12 C. The low and its effects should move out by Friday, bringing a return of sunny to partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures for the weekend.
Both weather models show some upper-level ridging developing late in the weekend and into the first half of next week. This should bring plenty of sunshine along with warm temperatures. Expect daytime highs pushing into the upper 20s to low 30s in the south, with mid- to upper 20s further north. I’ll update the forecast over the weekend when the picture becomes clearer on what will happen after this time.
Saskatchewan
This region will begin to see the impact of the Alberta low on Thursday with clouds and showers mostly impacting north-central and eastern regions. Temperatures will be cool, with daytime highs only in the upper teens to around 20 C and overnight lows around 12 C. The low is forecasted to move off into Manitoba by Saturday, but a weak disturbance looks to form over northern regions on Sunday, bringing more cloudy skies along with a few scattered showers. Most of the showers should be confined to central and northern regions and look to move off to the east by Monday or Tuesday. Temperatures look to remain cool with daytime highs remaining in the low 20s. What happens by the Wednesday or Thursday is up in the air right now, so stay tuned for updates.
Manitoba
Manitoba will see the upper low and associated clouds, showers and thundershowers finally pull off to the east on Thursday. This will allow for cool high pressure to drop southward from northern Manitoba. This cool air will keep daytime highs only in the low 20s and will also help create an unstable atmospheric profile. This means morning sunshine followed by afternoon clouds. The Alberta low will begin to impact southern and central Manitoba by late Thursday or early Friday, with plenty of clouds and showers. There is some indication that the system may intensify a little bit as it moves across Manitoba, bringing the chance of some steady rain, especially on Friday.
This low will slowly pull off to the east over the weekend, while at the same time the northern Saskatchewan disturbance will begin dropping southward. So, as Manitoba begins to clear out from the Alberta low, it will see increasing clouds from the north. It does look like everything will clear out by Monday allowing for at least a couple of days of sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. Much uncertainty exists around the middle of the week so stay tuned for updates.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
