The holiday weather picture is starting to shape up, and if you’re hoping for a perfect Christmas day with falling snow, I wouldn’t get my hopes up. If you are hoping for a continuation of mild winter weather, then it looks like you are in luck.
For this forecast, it looks like we’ll mostly remain in a split weather pattern with the northern storm stream staying well to our north across the southern Territories, and the second southern storm stream staying well to our south. If this was any other year, the current pattern would likely lead to the potential for at least one or two big storms across the Prairies. However, so far this year the strong southern storm systems are not gaining strength until they have moved too far to the east to impact the Prairies.
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During the first half of this forecast period, the weather models are showing an area of low-pressure dropping southwards along the west coast. This low will then move inland over southern California and then push into the southern Rockies. Usually this would wind up into a big winter storm system, but with a lack of really cold air in place it looks like this system will stay mostly to our south. Parts of southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario may be impacted by this system on Christmas Eve and into the early part of Christmas day, but the big question is whether or not the precipitation will fall as mostly rain or snow.
As for the rest of the Prairies, it looks like mild high pressure is going to dominate the weather right through to at least New Years bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies and above to well above average temperatures.
Alberta
A weak disturbance coming in off the Pacific will bring clouds along with a little light snow to the Peace River region on Wednesday before moving off into the Territories on Thursday. A second area of low pressure will begin to push eastwards from the Pacific on Thursday. This low will help to pull mild air northwards with daytime highs over the southern half of the province expected to be in the +2 to +8 C range right through until Friday.
The low responsible for the mild weather will pass by to the north over the weekend and allowing slightly cooler air to push southwards for Christmas Eve and Christmas day. Skies look to remain sunny to partly cloudy with daytime highs in the -2 to -6 C range with overnight lows only falling to around -12 C.
Additional Pacific energy will try to push eastwards during the last week of December. This will help to push daytime highs back above zero across southern and central regions and near zero over northern sections. There is some indications that an area of low pressure may push through late in the week but impacts from this system at this point look to be minimal with only a slight chance of snow and slightly cooler temperatures.
Saskatchewan
Mild and dry pretty much sums up the forecast for Saskatchewan. High pressure will be dominating the weather right through until at least new years bring sunny to partly cloudy skies along above average temperatures. The warmest temperatures will be felt at the start of this forecast period with daytime highs warming to around to +2 to +4 C range on Thursday and Friday before slight cooler air moves in for the holiday weekend with daytime highs cooling into the -2 to -6 C. The models are hinting at a return of above zero temperatures to start the last week of December with slightly cooler air moving back in around the New Year.
Manitoba
Manitoba is the only region that has a chance of seeing any stormy weather during this forecast period. Like Alberta and Saskatchewan, this forecast period will start off sunny and warm as mild air pushes northwards. Expect daytime highs to be in the 0 to +4 C range with overnight lows falling to around -8 C.
All eyes then turn to the area of low pressure developing over the southwestern U.S. The most current weather model runs are showing the low lifting northwards into Minnesota by Sunday with an inverted trough of low pressure developing to the north of the low. This trough has the potential to bring a messy mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow to the southeastern half of Manitoba and into northwestern Ontario on Sunday.
Confidence in the track of this system is low with weather models bouncing back and forth between hitting southern Manitoba and totally missing it. I will continue to keep an eye on this system and give you an update by Friday.
Once this system moves by, it looks like milder air will try to reestablish itself across the region as an area of low pressure drops southeastwards out of the northern prairies. Expect daytime highs to continue to be near or slightly above freezing to start the last week of December. There is a chance of some light snow late in the week but that is a long way off.
