First half of last issue’s forecast played out pretty close to what the weather model predicted. The main exception was the strong thunderstorms that hit southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. They arrived a little earlier than forecasted and were stronger than expected. The second half of the forecast was a little off but as I had pointed out, confidence, due to the weak nature of the weather systems, was low.
For this forecast period we are starting off with a large area of high pressure over Ontario and an equally large area of low pressure over the Yukon. The clockwise flow around the Ontario high, combined with the counterclockwise flow around the Yukon low, is creating a widespread southerly flow across the Prairies. This should lead to one more day of warm temperatures across the western Prairies and a couple more days over the eastern half.
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The Yukon low is forecasted to move eastwards staying well north of the Prairies, but it will drag a weak cold front through the Prairies as it passes by. This front could trigger some thundershowers and thunderstorms as it passes through.
This instability will have moved out of the western Prairies by Friday allowing for some weak ridging. This should result in sunny skies and warm temperatures. It will take an extra day for the instability to pull out of the eastern Prairies allowing a return to sunshine and seasonable summer temperatures to that region.
Early next week things start to look interesting. Confidence this far out is low, but the weather models have been fairly consistent with the big picture.
A large low in the high Arctic will help to push an area of low pressure out of the Gulf of Alaska. This low is forecasted to track across the central Prairies on Monday and Tuesday. It has the potential to tap into some fairly cool air thanks to the large high Arctic low. The cool air, while bringing some cool conditions to most of the Prairies on Monday and Tuesday, could help to enhance rainfalls north of the low. Definitely a system that will need watching.
Alberta
A couple of weak disturbances will bring the chance of some showers with the odd thunderstorm to most of Alberta on Wednesday and to southern regions on Thursday. With the partly cloudy skies expect daytime highs to be in the low twenties. High pressure will build in on Friday and Saturday and bring plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. Daytime highs are forecasted to be in the mid to upper twenties with overnight lows falling into the 12 to 15 C range.
Late in the weekend, the weather models are showing an area of low pressure dropping southeastwards out of the Gulf of Alaska thanks in large part to a large low-pressure circulation in the high Arctic. This low will bring increasing clouds and the chance of showers to northern and central regions late on Sunday.
The low is forecasted to intensity as it moves into southwestern Alberta on Monday before kicking northeastward. Depending on the exact track and timing of this intensification, southern regions could see some significant rains on Monday. The low will pull out of the province by Tuesday, which will allow for a return to sunny skies and seasonable summer temperatures.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Western Saskatchewan will see one more warm day before a weak cold front pushes through. Eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will likely see two more days of warm weather before the same front pushes through.
As the front pushes eastwards, it will help to trigger some showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for storms looks to be over Manitoba overnight Thursday and into Friday morning. Clouds and showers will clear out over the weekend as weak high pressure builds in. Expect plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures over the weekend with daytime highs in the mid to upper twenties. Overnight lows will fall to around 15 C.
On Monday an area of low pressure that is forecasted to drop southeastwards out of the Gulf of Alaska is predicted to intensify over southwestern Alberta and then lift northeastwards to track toward southern Hudson Bay by Wednesday. Confidence in the intensity and exact track of this system is low, but should it materialize as currently forecasted, much of southern and central Saskatchewan could see between 10 and 20 mm of rain.
Over Manitoba, the rain is forecast to fall mostly to the north of the low meaning most agricultural regions will miss out. Temperatures will be cool as unseasonable cool air gets pulled into the back side of the low. Skies should clear out by Wednesday allowing for temperatures to warm back toward seasonable values.
