After what was probably the biggest storm system of the winter, it looks like this forecast period will see a break from the active weather for the most part.
The weather models are showing a bit of a warm-up, but I’m not totally convinced that it will be as strong as what some of the forecasters are predicting. There is one fly in the weather ointment, and that is a small but apparently intense area of low pressure that the weather models show hitting southern Manitoba on Wednesday.
Read Also
Dryness poised to threaten Saskatchewan crops
Crops in Saskatchewan are developing in opposite directions, the province’s latest crop report said. Growing conditions in the province vary, with some areas receiving enough rain while other locations are experiencing crop stress due to hot, dry conditions.
Looking at the big picture, the weather models are showing weak Arctic high pressure settling across the Prairies behind the departing Manitoba low on Thursday and Friday. By the weekend, it looks like an upper ridge will begin building across B.C. and Alberta and bring a shot of warm weather. It then quickly moves east and collapses early next week.
The only low forecasted to impact the Prairies after the Manitoba low is an area of low pressure expected to develop on the northern edge of the building ridge over the weekend. This low may bring snow or showers to the Peace River region of Alberta before it tracks northeast into northern Saskatchewan.
Alberta
Southern regions should see the clouds and any light snow clear out early on Wednesday as weak high pressure builds in from the north. Daytime highs across the province look to range from the -7 to -12 C on Wednesday. They’ll begin to moderate on Thursday as the upper ridge starts to build. By Friday, expect daytime highs over southern regions to be around 10 C with highs in the north around 5 C. These warm temperatures look to last through the weekend before cooling slightly to start the week of March 11.
Not much in the way of precipitation is expected during this forecast period. The only real chance is found in the Peace River region on Sunday as an area of low pressure spins up on the northern edge of the building ridge. It doesn’t look like this system–should it develop–will bring much more than a few millimeters of precipitation.
Saskatchewan
Most of Agricultural Saskatchewan will see clouds and flurries to start this forecast period in part thanks to an area of low pressure moving northeast out of the western U.S. into Manitoba. Best chance of seeing measurable snowfall looks to be over far southeastern regions with forecasted amounts in the 2 to 4cm range.
Daytime highs will be on the cool side, ranging from -11 to -15 C on Wednesday and Thursday. As the upper ridge begins building to the west, daytime highs will warm towards the freezing mark by Friday or Saturday. It looks like the main push of warm air will occur on Sunday and Monday with daytime highs forecasted in the 4 to 7 C range. It looks like cooler air will move back in by Tuesday or Wednesday as the upper ridge collapses. Temperatures are forecasted to be in the -4 to 0 C range.
Besides the chance of flurries and some possible accumulating snow over far southern regions on Wednesday andThursday morning, little to no precipitation is expected over the remainder of the forecast period.
Manitoba
A small area of low pressure is being forecasted by all the weather models to impact southern Manitoba on Wednesday, and it’s looking increasingly intense. It’s expected to arrive mid-morning over western regions, and around mid-day over central and eastern regions. Snowfall amounts look to range from 5cm over the northwestern regions of southern Manitoba to as much as 15cm over the south-central region.
While the models are forecasting the development of this low, the timing of its intensification will be critical to where the largest amount of snow falls. Earlier intensification would mean areas near the border would see the highest amounts while a later intensification would push the heaviest snowfalls into the Interlake region. Snowfall from this system should end overnight Wednesday with skies clearing by late afternoon on Thursday.
With this system, temperatures will be on the cool side with daytime highs forecasted to be in the -7 to -11 C range from Wednesday to Friday. Over the weekend, the building western ridge will help to moderate temperatures. Under the strengthening spring sunshine, expect daytime highs to push towards the zero-degree mark on Saturday with highs reaching into the 4 to 6 C range on Sunday and Monday.
Slightly cooler air will work back in on Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper ridge collapses with daytime highs forecasted to drop back down into the -3 to +1 C range by Wednesday. There may be slight chance of some showers or flurries on Tuesday or Wednesday as the cooler air pushes in from the northwest.
