The weather models seem to be in good agreement for this forecast period, with no strong storm systems expected to impact the Prairies, making for a fairly high-confidence forecast.
This forecast period will start off with a generally west to southwesterly flow across the Prairies. A broad but weak area of low pressure is expected to slowly track from southern Alberta northeastward into northern Manitoba from Wednesday to Friday. This system will bring a mix of sun and clouds along its path with the chance of some widely scattered showers with the odd afternoon or early-evening thundershower. Temperatures look to be seasonable with daytime highs in the south in the low 20s, cooling to the upper teens over northern regions.
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Over the weekend the weather models show an area of high pressure dropping southward into northern Ontario and a large area of low pressure moving into the Gulf of Alaska. This will help to develop a ridge of high pressure over the western Prairies, pushing up temperatures, while the Ontario high brings a shot of cooler air to far eastern regions. The western upper ridge is then forecasted to move eastward during the week of Sept. 11, bringing summerlike weather to much of the southern and central Prairies.
Alberta
This forecast period starts with partly cloudy skies over southern and northern regions, with the slight chance of a shower. The track of the low will bring the best chance of precipitation to central regions along with plenty of clouds. Most of the precipitation should be out of the region by late-day Wednesday, bringing a return to sunny skies across most of the province. Temperatures will be a little cool under the regions that see mostly cloudy skies with daytime highs expected to be in the mid-teens.
Over the weekend the deepening low over the Gulf of Alaska will help to build an upper ridge across the province. This will bring plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. Expect daytime highs over southern region to be in the mid- to upper 20s, mid-20s in central regions, and upper teens to low 20s in the north. Sunny skies and warm temperatures look to stick around right through to the end of this forecast period.
Saskatchewan
The broad weak Alberta low will bring a mix of sun and clouds to much of Saskatchewan on Thursday and Friday along with the chance of some showers or thundershowers. Temperatures will be seasonable, with daytime highs in the low 20s over the southern half of the province and upper teens over more northern regions.
Over the weekend, the Alberta low will have weakened and move off to the east. An area of high pressure is then forecasted to drop southward into northern Manitoba on Sunday, then move off into northern Ontario to start the following week. This high will bring cooler temperatures, especially over northern and far eastern regions. Expect daytime highs to be in the mid- to upper teens in these regions and low 20s in the south and far western regions.
The building ridge of high pressure will then begin to push eastwars to start off the week of Sept. 11. This will bring a continuation of clear skies along with warming temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the low to mid-20s, with some southern regions possibly seeing upper 20s by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Manitoba
This region looks to see sunny and dry conditions to start off this forecast period as the disturbance that brought showers to southern and central regions on Tuesday moves off to the east. Expect seasonable temperatures from Wednesday to Saturday, with daytime highs in the low 20s and overnight lows falling to around 10 C.
Over the weekend the area of high pressure, forecasted to drop southeastward through northern Manitoba and then into northern Ontario, will bring a short cooldown. Currently the weather models show daytime highs dropping into the upper teens by Sunday with overnight lows falling into the 5 to 8 C range. This cooldown only looks like it will last a couple of days before the advancing upper ridge brings a return of seasonable to above-seasonable temperatures, with daytime highs by Tuesday or Wednesday rising into the low to mid-20s.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
