The weather models are doing a good job handling all the heat and humidity that has been driving thunderstorms and breaking temperature records across the eastern half of the Prairies over the last week. To the west it has been a little cooler and drier, with not as much instability to deal with, but nonetheless, the forecasts have been pretty accurate over this region as well.
For this forecast period, it looks like our general pattern is going to undergo a bit of shift. Over the last week the eastern Prairies have been dominated by an upper ridge with lots of low-level moisture feeding northward, thanks to a broad area of low pressure over the central U.S.
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This upper ridge is starting to break down, which will allow for the area of low pressure and the accompanying humidity and instability to move off to our south and east. Replacing this will be a modified area of arctic high pressure that will slowly slide south and east over the next five days. While arctic high pressure usually means cooler temperatures, the strong June sunshine and already-warm temperatures in place will mean only a bit of a cool down is expected.
Alberta
High pressure looks to dominate the region right through until at least Saturday. Expect plenty of sunshine along with seasonable temperatures. Daytime highs look to be in the mid-20s, with overnight lows falling to a nice comfortable range of 12 to 15 C. By Sunday, a series of weak lows are predicted to slide by to the north of the province dragging weak cold fronts behind them. Temperatures don’t look to cool down much, but the cold fronts will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern and central regions until at least Wednesday.
Saskatchewan
The last of the intense heat and humidity across southern and central regions will be pushed out of the region by the strong arctic high by late Thursday or Friday. Skies will be mainly clear with dewpoints dropping back into the low to mid-teens. By the end of the week and over the weekend, daytime highs in southern and central regions will be in the 25 C range with over night lows falling to around 14 C. The warmest temperatures will be in the far north where daytime high will climb toward the 30 C mark. This northern heat will slide southeast early next week as the area of high pressure slowly moves off to the east. Expect daytime highs across the southern half of the province to edge back up toward 30 C on Monday and Tuesday.
Manitoba
Like in Saskatchewan, the last of the intense heat, humidity and accompanying thunderstorms should move off to the east by Friday morning. After that, expect plenty of sunshine, much lower dewpoints, and nice cool overnight lows. Daytime highs will be in the 25 C range with overnight lows falling in to the 12 to 14 C range. Winds should be relatively light with high pressure overhead. After the weekend, temperatures look to warm up again as the core of the warm air associated with the departing high moves in. Expect daytime highs to rise once again into the low 30s, with overnight lows only falling to around 18 C. Humidity does not look like it will be a big problem with maybe a brief spike in dewpoint to the upper teens next Wednesday.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
