While last issue’s forecast turned out surprisingly well, this spring’s weather is continuing to be tough to forecast. I’m going to start by saying confidence in this forecast is lower than usual, as the weather models are not being consistent between model runs.
Spring is the toughest time to forecast, but this spring is being particularly tough. The atmosphere is in a very meridional flow right now. That means there are lots of troughs and ridges. So, instead of a persistent westerly flow across our region we are seeing warm southerly flows as ridges build, followed by cool northerly flows as the ridges collapse and are replaced by troughs of low pressure. Each time this happens, there’s some precipitation usually moves through. In past years these troughs or ridges would often get stuck in place, where they’d bring prolonged periods of warm or cold weather. Not so this year, it seems.
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Prairie forecast: Potential to turn cool and wet
For this forecast period we are starting off with a large area of high pressure over Ontario and an equally large area of low pressure over the Yukon. The clockwise flow around the Ontario high, combined with the counterclockwise flow around the Yukon low, is creating a widespread southerly flow across the Prairies. This should lead to one more day of warm temperatures across the western Prairies and a couple more days over the eastern half.
This forecast period starts off with an area of low-pressure dropping southeastwards out of northern Saskatchewan as a ridge of high-pressure slides eastwards across the southern Prairies. This ridge will bring a quick shot of warm temperatures on Wednesday. It should then push off to the south and be replaced by cool Arctic air dropping southwards behind the northern Prairie low.
The cool air will stick around until Saturday across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but a building ridge of high pressure will bring milder temperatures across all of Alberta beginning Friday. These mild temperatures will work their way into Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Saturday and Sunday. Then the ridge is forecasted to collapse and allow cool Arctic air to once again drop southwards on Easter Monday.
Seasonable but unsettled weather looks to move in for at least the first half of next week. A weak area of low pressure is forecasted to slowly meander across the Prairies where it will bring a mixed bag of precipitation—showers in the day and wet snow of flurries at night.
Alberta
Cool air will be in place to start this forecast period as the northern Saskatchewan low drags a cold front southward. Expect cloudy to partly cloudy skies with daytime highs on Wednesday and Thursday to be in the 7 to 10 C range. A building ridge of high pressure will bring back sunny skies and warm temperature on Friday and Saturday. Expect daytime highs pushing into the mid to upper teens.
This upper ridge is forecasted to quickly slide eastwards as an area of low pressure develops over B.C. and pushes into southern regions sometime on Saturday. Expect increasing clouds and the chance of showers late on Saturday and into Sunday. Best chances of precipitation look to be over the southern half of the province. The clouds and showers will help to keep daytime highs down with the weather models showing highs in the 5 to 8 C range in the south and in the 8 to 12 C range in the north.
Cool high pressure will slide through far northern regions to start next week while unsettled conditions will remain in the south. This will keep temperatures on the cool side for late April with daytime highs forecasted to be around 10 C.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
These regions will see a mild but unsettled start to this forecast period as an area of low-pressure track southeastwards out of northern Saskatchewan and into north-central Manitoba. Mild air will be pulled northwards ahead of the low on Wednesday. This will push daytime highs into the low to mid-teens depending on sunshine. As the low slides southeastwards, it will bring cooler temperatures and increasing chances of showers. Expect daytime highs to drop into the 6 to 10 C range in Saskatchewan on Thursday with cooler temperatures moving into Manitoba late on Thursday as the trailing cold front moves through.
Good Friday looks to be a cool day as Arctic high pressure settles in behind the departing low. Daytime highs are forecasted to only be in the 4 to 8 C range as skies slowly clear from west to east. Temperatures will moderate over the Easter weekend as upper-level ridging builds in from the west. Expect plenty of sunshine on Saturday and Sunday with daytime highs warming back into the mid to upper teens.
The upper ridge is forecasted to quickly collapse early next week. This will allow cooler air to move in from the north dropping daytime highs back down to around the 10 C mark. The weather models are showing a small but strong area of low pressure impacting southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan on Tuesday and Wednesday but confidence in this system is very low at this time.
