The weather pattern has definitely settled down from the active period we saw at the end of February and first part of March. The cold weather has also been replaced by above average temperatures. The question I have been hearing the most is–has spring arrived or is there still a bit of winter left to be felt?
For this forecast period, it looks like all regions will start off mild and spring-like with above-average temperatures expected across all three Prairie provinces. But (you knew there was going to be a but) the weather models have been consistently leaning towards colder-than-average temperatures at the very tail end of this forecast period and lasting for about a week.
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Here is the big picture. Weak high pressure is in place across the Prairies with a rather weak zonal flow. This type of pattern often results in fog and low clouds that can be difficult to predict. As we work our way towards the weekend, the models are showing a ridge of high pressure building over B.C., and then slowly moving into Alberta and Saskatchewan.
As the ridge pushes eastwards, an area of low pressure is expected to develop on the northern edge of this ridge. It should plunge southeastwards into Manitoba and northwestern Ontario on Friday and Saturday. Arctic high pressure is then forecasted to drop southwards behind the low. This will not only bring cooler temperatures to the eastern Prairies, but also will push the upper ridge back to the west.
Alberta looks to stay in the mild air, but just how much Saskatchewan will be affected is still uncertain. The western ridge looks to build back eastwards early next week before it collapses as and area of low pressure begins developing over the northwestern U.S.
Alberta
Sunny and warm can best describe this forecast period. Daytime highs will start in the 4 to 7C range on Wednesday and Thursday. Southern regions could see a few clouds with maybe the odd shower or flurry. Any clouds or precipitation should be out of the region by Thursday and, as the upper ridge builds in over the weekend, skies should remain cloud-free and temperatures will soar. Weather models are showing daytime highs by Sunday pushing into the mid or even upper teens, which could be in record breaking territory.
The upper ridge is forecasted to collapse southwards early next week as an area of low pressure develops over the U.S. northwest. Temperatures will cool down by Wednesday with northern regions seeing highs around the freezing mark and southern regions expecting highs in the 5C range. Should the low develop as forecasted, southern and central regions will see increasing clouds on Tuesday and Wednesday along with showers and/or snow developing.
Saskatchewan
Average-to-above-average temperatures are expected across all of agricultural Saskatchewan during this forecast period. Weak high pressure will bring a mix of sun and clouds on Wednesday and Thursday with the potential for some regions to see mostly cloudy skies while other regions clear out. Daytime highs are forecasted to be in the 0 to 4 C range. As the western ridge of high pressure begins building eastwards on Friday, expect mainly sunny skies. Daytime highs should warm to around the 10C mark over southern regions and around 4C over the north.
On Friday, an area of low pressure will track through northern Manitoba and drag a cold front with it. This cold front will drop highs down to around 3C on Saturday and Sunday. A quick rebound in temperatures is expected early next week as the western ridge tries to build back into the region. Expect daytime highs to warm back towards the 10C mark with overnight lows falling to around zero degrees.
Manitoba
This forecast period looks to start with plenty of clouds, fog, drizzle, freezing drizzle, or light flurries as moisture and a weak disturbance track through the region. Temperatures will be mild with daytime highs in the 1 to 4C range and overnight lows falling to around -5C.
On Friday, an area of low pressure is forecasted to track southeast through northern Manitoba and into northwestern Ontario by Saturday. This low will bring clouds and the chance of showers on Friday with any precipitation transitioning into light snow or flurries by Friday evening and Saturday morning. Any significant precipitation from this low looks to stay to the north and east of the forecast region.
Temperatures will cool off behind the low as weak Arctic high pressure drops southwards and skies clear. Expect daytime highs on Saturday and Sunday to be in the -5C range with overnight lows falling to around -15C. Temperatures will begin to moderate starting on Monday as the western ridge tries to push eastwards. Expected daytime highs to be in the 4 to 8C range by Tuesday or Wednesday.
