We start this forecast period off with plenty of warm air in place across much of the Prairies. We continue to see areas of low pressure dropping southeastward from the western territories into northwestern Ontario with high pressure still in place across the northwestern U.S. and southwestern Canada.
This pattern has brought mild temperatures to Alberta and much of Saskatchewan. Manitoba has dealt with some temperature whiplash as temperatures warm ahead of each passing low and then quickly cool down as the low passes.
The general weather pattern looks like it will undergo a shift during this forecast period as the weather models show the western high breaking down. This will allow for the flow to switch from northwesterly to more westerly as we approach the weekend.
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This westerly flow will keep mild temperatures across the southern and central Prairies over the next couple of days, but it will also allow for an approaching storm system from the Pacific to push inland into Alberta early in the weekend. This area of low pressure is then forecasted to push across the southern and central Prairies over the weekend, bringing widespread snow. Currently it doesn’t look like it will be that strong of a system. Snowfall totals are forecasted to be in the 5 to 10 cm range in a band stretching from south-central Alberta into southern Manitoba.
Behind this low, Arctic high pressure is forecasted to drop southwards from the Yukon into Alberta and Saskatchewan. While this high does not look terribly cold, the coldest air looks like it will be centered over Alberta. After all the mild temperatures they have been receiving, it’s going to be a bit of a rude awaking.
Alberta
Most regions will see another few days of mild weather as the swath of high pressure that’s been providing the warm air begins to break down and slide off to the south. As this occurs, energy from the Gulf of Alaska will start pushing in. This will bring plenty of clouds with flurries or occasional light snow to a wide part of central and northern regions. By Friday, a much stronger area of low pressure is forecast to push ashore over southern B.C. and to move into south-central Alberta late in the day. This low will bring some snow to most regions over night Friday and into early Saturday.
This low is forecasted to quickly slide off to the east, but a lingering trough of low pressure is expected to develop behind the low. This will keep clouds and flurries over central regions into late Saturday or early Sunday. Arctic high pressure is then forecasted to drop southwards and bring an end to the mild temperatures. Expect daytime highs by Sunday or Monday to be in the -20 C range, with overnight lows dropping to around -26 to -30 C. These cold temperatures will stick around until Tuesday or Wednesday before slightly milder air moves in on the backside of the Arctic high.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
These regions will see one more weak area of low-pressure track southeastwards through the northwesterly flow on Wednesday bringing clouds and a few flurries. The system will move through very quickly so little accumulation is expected. Temperatures look to remain mild with highs in the -2 to -6 C range.
As the flow becomes westerly on Thursday and Friday, we will see increasing clouds ahead of an area of low pressure moving in off the Pacific and into south-central Aberta on Friday. Snow will blossom ahead of the main area of low pressure late on Friday over Saskatchewan and on Saturday over Manitoba.
While the main area of low pressure is forecasted to track through south-central Saskatchewan on Saturday and southern Manitoba on Sunday, an inverted trough of low pressure is forecasted to develop and extend back to the northwest behind the low. This trough will continue to bring widespread light snow overnight Saturday in Saskatchewan and for the first half of the day on Sunday for Manitoba before the low and the trough pulls off to the east on Monday. Total snowfall from this system is forecasted to be in the 5 to 10 cm range from central Saskatchewan southeastwards into the southern Manitoba. Areas further south will likely see 2 to 5 cm, with parts of extreme southern Saskatchewan likely seeing little to no snow.
Cold Arctic high pressure is forecasted to drop southwards on Sunday and should be entrenched across the Prairies by Monday. The center of the high is forecasted to be over Alberta and western Saskatchewan. Daytime highs on Monday will likely stay steady around -20 C with overnight lows falling into the -25 to -28 C range. These really cold temperatures look to stick around until Wednesday before slightly milder air pushes temperatures upwards by about 5 to 8 C by Thursday or Friday. As usual, that’s a long way off and plenty can change between now and then.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
