Statistics Canada trims wheat production estimate

Lentil crop estimate up from August

MarketsFarm — Canadian farmers grew less wheat in 2020-21 than earlier thought, according to updated production estimates Statistics Canada released Monday.

However, the country’s wheat crop would still be the second-largest on record and well above the five-year average.

Using yield models based on satellite imagery, total wheat production in the country for 2020-21 is now forecast at 34.145 million tonnes. That compares with the August estimate of 35.348 million and the year-ago level of 32.348 million tonnes.

Winter wheat was left unchanged from the previous month, at 2.849 million tonnes, but both durum and other spring wheat were revised lower.

Statistics Canada now sees durum production at 6.134 million tonnes, down from 6.926 million in August but above the year ago level of 4.977 million tonnes. Other spring wheat, at 25.162 million tonnes, would be down from both the year-ago reading of 25.67 million tonnes and the August estimate of 25.935 million tonnes.

Canola production only saw a small adjustment from August, with the 19.393 million tonnes largely unchanged from the previous estimate of 19.403 million tonnes. Canada grew 19.477 million tonnes of canola in 2019-20.

In the pulse crops, forecasted pea production was lowered to 4.36 million tonnes, from 4.996 million in August. Lentils, meanwhile, were raised to 3.065 million tonnes, from 2.805 million. Canada grew 4.237 million tonnes of peas in 2019-20 and 2.242 million tonnes of lentils.

Table: A quick summary of the Statistics Canada September model-based crop production estimates for 2020-21, in millions of metric tonnes. August estimates and year-ago numbers included for comparison. Source: Statistics Canada.

September.    . August Five-year
.                      . 2020-21 2020-21.     . 2019-20.     . average
Durum 6.134 6.962 4.977 5.767
All wheat 34.145 35.348 32.348 30.712
Oats 4.503 4.498 4.237 3.364
Barley 10.254 10.546 10.383 8.749
Flaxseed 0.552 0.558 0.492 0.629
Canola 19.393 19.403 19.447 18.988
Peas 4.360 4.996 4.237 3.993
Lentils 3.065 2.805 2.242 2.596


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