StatsCan’s model-based estimates confirm larger crops

CNS Canada — Canadian canola and wheat production likely ended up larger than earlier estimates, according to computer model-based data released Tuesday by Statistics Canada.

The model-based estimates are calculated by incorporating satellite data, agro-climate data, and Statistics Canada’s field crop reporting data. The numbers compare with the survey of farmers released Aug. 31.

Total canola production is now forecast at a record 19.7 million tonnes, compared to 18.2 million forecast in August, and the year-ago level of 19.6 million.

Canadian all-wheat production (including durum) was raised to 27.1 million, from 25.5 million. Wheat production in 2016 came in at 31.7 million tonnes.

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“We’re still seeing the impact of the drought, but it’s just not as dramatic,” said Bruce Burnett, director of markets and weather with Glacier FarmMedia, on the increased yields from August.

“It fits in with what the trade was expecting (and) the trade still thinks the numbers will go higher from here.

“I don’t think it changes the overall market picture all that much,” he added. While canola production may be at a new record, he said demand remains strong as well and supplies will not be considered burdensome.

“The feeling from the field over the course of the harvest is that yields are coming in better than expected,” said analyst Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada.

“I don’t think we’re done yet,” he added, noting “I think we have a (canola) crop of over 20 million tonnes.”

Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow him at @PhilFW on Twitter.

Table: A quick summary of Statistics Canada’s September model-based crop production estimates for 2017-18, in millions of tonnes. August survey-based estimates and year-ago numbers are included for comparison. Source: Statistics Canada.

September,August,
model-based,.    .survey-based,
2017-182017-182016-17
Durum wheat.    .4.2993.8987.762
Spring wheat20.07618.88920.455
Winter wheat2.7552.7543.513
All wheat27.13025.54131.729
Oats3.8023.6853.195
Barley7.3067.2128.784
Flaxseed0.5010.5070.588
Canola19.70818.20319.601
Peas3.8623.7934.836
Lentils2.4392.2913.248

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